Read on Twitter
1/ It’s been 1.5 weeks since I last posted an Oregon #covid19 trend thread
It’s been a pivotal stretch of time nation-wide as numbers, especially in hot spots, continue
. It’s been an important stretch for Oregon during this time
Let’s dive in… https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1277596691911176192?s=20
It’s been a pivotal stretch of time nation-wide as numbers, especially in hot spots, continue
. It’s been an important stretch for Oregon during this timeLet’s dive in… https://twitter.com/aoglasser/status/1277596691911176192?s=20
2/ Alas, numbers continue to in Oregon
We’re not the hot spot that AZ, FL, or TX are...yet…but based on the “pessimistic model” released last month, there was the potential for ~5000 new infections daily v ~180 daily for the “optimistic”
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/Oregon-COVID-19-Projections-2020-06-25.pdf
in OregonWe’re not the hot spot that AZ, FL, or TX are...yet…but based on the “pessimistic model” released last month, there was the potential for ~5000 new infections daily v ~180 daily for the “optimistic”
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/DISEASESCONDITIONS/DISEASESAZ/Emerging%20Respitory%20Infections/Oregon-COVID-19-Projections-2020-06-25.pdf
3/ Numbers are increasing
As of today:
11,454 cases
232 deaths
275 new confirmed/presumed cases today itself https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1281674075409006593?s=20
As of today:
11,454 cases
232 deaths
275 new confirmed/presumed cases today itself https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1281674075409006593?s=20
4/ we are breaking records for number of cases
In my last thread, I reported that we had just had the 1st 3-day streak with >200 cases
The first three day stretch with > 300 cases was:
375 (7/2)
344 (7/3)
303 (7/4)
301 (7/5)
New record # cases/day = yesterday with 389 cases
In my last thread, I reported that we had just had the 1st 3-day streak with >200 cases
The first three day stretch with > 300 cases was:
375 (7/2)
344 (7/3)
303 (7/4)
301 (7/5)
New record # cases/day = yesterday with 389 cases
5/ Numbers were a little lower right after the July 4th weekend, dipping into the mid 100s to low 200s, but I wonder how much of that was less testing around the holiday weekend
6/ on that note, one of the big questions will be—
How could gathering around the holiday weekend drive transmission more?
There was a big public health campaign to minimize the risk of spread
Time will tell if this advice was headed https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1278865278760345600?s=20
How could gathering around the holiday weekend drive transmission more?
There was a big public health campaign to minimize the risk of spread
Time will tell if this advice was headed https://twitter.com/OHAOregon/status/1278865278760345600?s=20
7/ 1871 cases in the last week = 16% of Oregonian cases
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19#!/
9/ demographic information
Rising cases are being driven by patients in the youngest decades of the age brackets, with the plurality of new COVID cases in the past two weeks being Oregonians in their 20s
(Side by side pictures for comparison to 6/25 report)
Rising cases are being driven by patients in the youngest decades of the age brackets, with the plurality of new COVID cases in the past two weeks being Oregonians in their 20s
(Side by side pictures for comparison to 6/25 report)
10/ the youngest kiddos are also being affected!
“Coronavirus cases among Oregon children younger than 10 grew fivefold during the month of June, representing the fastest growth rate of new or presumed infections across any age range.” https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/coronavirus-infections-rising-fastest-among-kids-younger-than-10-dimming-prospects-for-oregons-school-reopening-plans.html?fbclid=IwAR2rCIl5-N2VuzdmoSWU1PIvnSlx-R448PfcrSPw3lgI4j9jggx5CGqSvT8
“Coronavirus cases among Oregon children younger than 10 grew fivefold during the month of June, representing the fastest growth rate of new or presumed infections across any age range.” https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/coronavirus-infections-rising-fastest-among-kids-younger-than-10-dimming-prospects-for-oregons-school-reopening-plans.html?fbclid=IwAR2rCIl5-N2VuzdmoSWU1PIvnSlx-R448PfcrSPw3lgI4j9jggx5CGqSvT8
11/ Oregon continues to see racial disparities:
For reference:
About 3% of Oregon’s population is Black
About 12% of state population is Hispanic
For reference:
About 3% of Oregon’s population is Black
About 12% of state population is Hispanic
12/ additionally, Pacific Islander Oregonians have the highest rate of COVID19 in Oregon:
3.0% of cases v 0.4% of the population
189.6 cases per 10,000 (see prior tweet for table for further reference)
16.5% hospitalized https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/pacific-islanders-have-higher-covid-19-rates-than-any-other-race-in-oregon.html
3.0% of cases v 0.4% of the population
189.6 cases per 10,000 (see prior tweet for table for further reference)
16.5% hospitalized https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/pacific-islanders-have-higher-covid-19-rates-than-any-other-race-in-oregon.html
13/ the numbers are increasing not only because of more testing
The per positive has increased—5.3% in the last week
The per positive has increased—5.3% in the last week
14/ what about severity illness/hospitalizations, esp if asymptomatic/mild cases w access to testing may contribute to climb??
These continue to increase though have still not YET reached March/April levels
ED visits for covid-like illness (CLI) remain low
These continue to increase though have still not YET reached March/April levels
ED visits for covid-like illness (CLI) remain low
15/ what counties are being affected the most?
Highest per capita # in rural counties (ex w known outbreaks), highest total N in more populous co’s (Marion falls in both buckets...)
Portland metro
Multnomah 2730
Washington 1764
Clackamas 925
Marion 1770
Umatilla 937
Union 368
Highest per capita # in rural counties (ex w known outbreaks), highest total N in more populous co’s (Marion falls in both buckets...)
Portland metro
Multnomah 2730
Washington 1764
Clackamas 925
Marion 1770
Umatilla 937
Union 368
16/ looking county growth in cases another way…
Union Co. had church outbreak, slowed
Umatilla has the highest growth, now with second highest per capita rate for a county (behind Union Co)
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-by-your-locations/
Union Co. had church outbreak, slowed
Umatilla has the highest growth, now with second highest per capita rate for a county (behind Union Co)
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-by-your-locations/
17/ zip code based data shows growth is more geographically diverse
“Some 21 ZIP codes accounted for roughly half of the newest cases. In the past, 14 or fewer ZIP codes typically accounted for half of the newly identified cases.” https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/the-10-oregon-zip-codes-with-the-most-new-coronavirus-cases.html
“Some 21 ZIP codes accounted for roughly half of the newest cases. In the past, 14 or fewer ZIP codes typically accounted for half of the newly identified cases.” https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/the-10-oregon-zip-codes-with-the-most-new-coronavirus-cases.html
18/ where is transmission coming from?
from outbreaks
from “sporadic” cases
per public health authorities—Exercise classes, multiple household parties, birthdays, weddings, other celebrations
from outbreaks from “sporadic” casesper public health authorities—Exercise classes, multiple household parties, birthdays, weddings, other celebrations
19/ the percentage of cases that can be traced to a source remains below goal
20/ New modeling out today paints a pessimistic outlook…
ex 1100-7300 new cases/day byend July (w only 20-30% of those formally diagnosed w testing)
Modeling also-hospitalization could—from ~17/day (beginning July) to ~76/day & challenge capacity https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/new-forecast-shows-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-in-oregon-could-spike-by-end-of-july.html
ex 1100-7300 new cases/day byend July (w only 20-30% of those formally diagnosed w testing)
Modeling also-hospitalization could
—from ~17/day (beginning July) to ~76/day & challenge capacity https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/07/new-forecast-shows-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-in-oregon-could-spike-by-end-of-july.html
