Read on Twitter
COVID Update July 10: The most disturbing thing right now is not the growth in new COVID cases.
Itâs that even after 4 months, we have no visibility into whatâs happening. Or what has happened.
And that makes for a tough Fall. 1/
Itâs that even after 4 months, we have no visibility into whatâs happening. Or what has happened.
And that makes for a tough Fall. 1/
Yes it is hard to pick just one. But the present we see, the future we invent right now. And because the country has failed, we are massively growing cases without much of anything we can do. 2/
People donât like social distancing. Donât love wearing a mask. Want schools to open in person & see sports.
These are PRIMATIVE interventions we deal with because we have no ability to track the virus. Give us that ability, everything changes. 3/
These are PRIMATIVE interventions we deal with because we have no ability to track the virus. Give us that ability, everything changes. 3/
We talk about tests either as things that help us figure out if we have CV or something that Trump thinks we do too much of.
But tests are far more important. They are the only way cases can be found & decreased & the ONLY path to normality until a scientific breakthrough. 4/
But tests are far more important. They are the only way cases can be found & decreased & the ONLY path to normality until a scientific breakthrough. 4/
Everyone is aware that unlike the flu, this virus travels invisibly, with pre- and asymptomatic hosts.
The only way to know how many people have the virus & where it is growing is with lots of testing. We knew this months ago.
And havenât done anything. 5/
The only way to know how many people have the virus & where it is growing is with lots of testing. We knew this months ago.
And havenât done anything. 5/
We are so spectacularly bad that we report on how many tested cases are confirmed every day, a small faction (10%-20%) of how many occur.
Think back to March. Is this where you thought we would be? 60,000 cases/day we know of & missing almost all of them. 6/
Think back to March. Is this where you thought we would be? 60,000 cases/day we know of & missing almost all of them. 6/
Thereâs all kinds of fancy stuffâ digital thermometers, symptom checkers, mobility appsâ that are supposed to tell us where itâs going next.
If all of those worked & we all used them, we would catch 60% of cases. As it is, those arenât in prime time. But they can help us focus.7
If all of those worked & we all used them, we would catch 60% of cases. As it is, those arenât in prime time. But they can help us focus.7
So testing is the only way to get there. And right now backlogs are a week or more, test positives are growing (10%â back where we were in early May).8/
The fact is the testing industry hasnât done a bad job growing the number of tests. They even doubled the price of the test from $50 to $100.
(See my new book: Profiting from the Pandemic)* 9/
(See my new book: Profiting from the Pandemic)* 9/
*I donât have a new book. That book would be way too long anyway. 10/
The problem feeds on itself. Hereâs how:
If itâs a week to 10 days for a test result, do people isolate while they wait? No.
Do testing results we see reflect reality? No. They lag a week.
Will people decide itâs even worth it to get a test? No 11/
If itâs a week to 10 days for a test result, do people isolate while they wait? No.
Do testing results we see reflect reality? No. They lag a week.
Will people decide itâs even worth it to get a test? No 11/
At the beginning of May when states opened up I wrote a thread (summarized here) saying welcome to the month of bliss.
I said that May would feel fine by looking at the numbers. But we would have no idea until later.
And now we know. 12/ https://coronavirus.medium.com/relaxing-all-social-distancing-behaviors-now-is-a-huge-mistake-c03674423888
I said that May would feel fine by looking at the numbers. But we would have no idea until later.
And now we know. 12/ https://coronavirus.medium.com/relaxing-all-social-distancing-behaviors-now-is-a-huge-mistake-c03674423888
That time lag is costly. Imagine we could learn in 2 weeks what now takes 2 months? With chagrin Governor Abbott made decisions to close bars & require masks.
The day he expanded restaurants to 50% capacity was likely the day he should have closed down. 13/
The day he expanded restaurants to 50% capacity was likely the day he should have closed down. 13/
Thatâs not entirely on Abbott. Thatâs on Donald Trump for taking no accountability for testing, putting together no national plan, and for discouraging people to get tested.
Trumpâs ignorance & indifference has grown lethal. 14/
Trumpâs ignorance & indifference has grown lethal. 14/
Because cases lag & are lacking look at something solid like hospitalizations. While DeSantis was peacocking âyouâre all wrong. This is just young peopleâ & Ducey denied the problem, they knew in mid-June.
And could have been seen in May if we had our act together. 15/ https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1281702668734472192
And could have been seen in May if we had our act together. 15/ https://twitter.com/aslavitt/status/1281702668734472192
So what do we all want this Fall? Schools to begin. To go to work. We have an incoming college freshman. He would like to go to college for some reason. (
) 16/
) 16/
(Aside: I mean why why why would he want to get away from us? We are really cool parents who say & do cool things & would never embarrass him. And Iâm very funny everyone knows. It makes no sense.) 17/
So we have reviewed the college opening plan. In fact we have reviewed many. They all are banking on being able to massive amounts of testing of asymptomatic people.
Same with K-12. They rely on testing.
So does the NBA plan.
So so most office plans.
So do airports. 18/
Same with K-12. They rely on testing.
So does the NBA plan.
So so most office plans.
So do airports. 18/
Uh huh. Yep. Our ability to do anything is predicated on knowing whoâs sick. Not just the 60% with symptoms.
But weâre blind. Running out of PPE, no tests. No contact tracing. Trump wants us back to work but hasnât lifted a damn finger. 19/
But weâre blind. Running out of PPE, no tests. No contact tracing. Trump wants us back to work but hasnât lifted a damn finger. 19/
And with 10 legislative days left, we have uninsurable benefits expiring, evictions coming.
Mr. McConnell, your guy was supposed to have fixed it by now so people could get back to work like they are in the rest of the world. He didnât. Stop hanging people out to dry. 20/
Mr. McConnell, your guy was supposed to have fixed it by now so people could get back to work like they are in the rest of the world. He didnât. Stop hanging people out to dry. 20/
Forget last month. This lack of visibility plagues is for next month & the month after.
When cases move from the areas where we are indoors in the summer to where we are indoors in the winter, the same thing will happen again. 21/
When cases move from the areas where we are indoors in the summer to where we are indoors in the winter, the same thing will happen again. 21/
We not only canât see the future, we not only canât see the present, but we canât even see 2 weeks in the past very well. 22/
Washington, Oregon, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, etc.â youâre not off the hook.
Cases will spread up to a month before you see them now with reporting lags & timing of symptom onset. 23/
Cases will spread up to a month before you see them now with reporting lags & timing of symptom onset. 23/
Governors, stop looking at reports of new cases & assuming youâre ok. You wonât know until people start being admitted to the hospitalâ and you will regret not acting sooner.
Donât be like the governors who wonât admit the problem when they see it. 24/
Donât be like the governors who wonât admit the problem when they see it. 24/
The Fall has its own set of challenges. The flu will make actual COVID harder to detect. Kids will be in school. Trump will be in election-season open at all costs mode. His hot spots rallies will be clean up zones.
People forced to work will be carrying the burden. 25/
People forced to work will be carrying the burden. 25/
Itâs never too late for a national approach that isnât based on denial, lies & politics. But given that this increasingly remote, I hear from many people that they feel increasingly on their own. 26/
As comedian @kumailn told me, most of us on our own donât have the infrastructure to fight a global pandemic. His other observations were great but I disagree entirely about the showering in the sink. 27/ http://Smarturl.it/inthebubble
So people are feeling abandoned.
The rest of the worldâ who have excess tests (because they DONâT NEED THEM)â has no interest in helping us.
China tested 11 million people in one weekend. But Trump has made them all pick up our WHO burden. 28/
The rest of the worldâ who have excess tests (because they DONâT NEED THEM)â has no interest in helping us.
China tested 11 million people in one weekend. But Trump has made them all pick up our WHO burden. 28/
So there we are with no global or national support and governors doing the best they can given that they have no tools & are running out of money. 29/
Sorry this thread is so long. Iâve been trying to end it on a positive note for a while and I just keep making it worse. 30/
Monday is the podcast episode on the vaccine. And as Iâve said there is optimistic news there. And itâs the weekend.
I guess not every song has a happy ending. But tomorrowâs will I know. /end
I guess not every song has a happy ending. But tomorrowâs will I know. /end
