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Shall we do this? I think we shall... (Thread) https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1281576885214904320
There is no question that is a lot of GDP.
And if we go by market size, that is nearly 60 million people more in terms of population than the EU.
This is not to be sniffed at.
This is not to be sniffed at.
But in terms of market value, it's not bigger than the EU, and you can make out that there is some disparity in the individual market values.
Now if we are looking at tariff removal, then we already have deals or are renegotiating continuity with some of those markets.
Just 17% of the total GDP is covered by a deal.
Just 17% of the total GDP is covered by a deal.
If you then take the countries we are negotiating new deals and assume they are completed this year, we are left with just 3% of that GDP figure on low value markets.
Now the big benefit in CPTPP is cumulation. Countries can include each other as part of their origin, and that is great for regional value chains.
But this is *not* regional, and is sub-optimal for sub-components.
But this is *not* regional, and is sub-optimal for sub-components.
But even then it's not impossible to conceive a situation where you import a sub-component from one to export to another. Say Japan to Canada or vice versa.
But we have another problem that we have only a small amount of dedicated air-freight to belly-hold freight. Consequently, our trade with the East is dependent on using air freight in Europe.
Since facilitation costs between the EU and the UK are going to go up unless we stay in the Single Market, then that reduces the benefits of this deal and at worst could negate them altogether.
It's standard for politicians to cite GDP when publicising trade deals, but it's not really a good measure.
However, doing it for CPTPP feels dishonest. Only a few niche businesses may benefit, and those benefits are being negatively affected by our current trade policy.
However, doing it for CPTPP feels dishonest. Only a few niche businesses may benefit, and those benefits are being negatively affected by our current trade policy.
There are real benefits in terms of meeting standards and service exports. Some of which, again, our new and renegotiating trade deals could do. (Or even improve on)
There are some good benefits to CPTPP, but it is definitely being oversold by a UK who want to talk about trade more than they want to listen to those who actually do trade.
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