On a call with Dr. Allison Arwady, the city's top doctor. She's talking about COVID-19 here. I'll live tweet.

Follow for updates and let me know if you have questions.

Yesterday's Illinois update: https://blockclubchicago.org/2020/07/09/1018-more-coronavirus-cases-reported-in-illinois-but-deaths-fall/

Arwady: "Obviously all around us we are seeing significant increases in terms of new COVID-19 cases."

Arwady: We're at 171 new cases per day, 5 deaths per day and a 4.8 percent positivity rate.

Arwady: We had a "little bit" of an increase in case numbers last week, but then it's back down. "We watch this really careful every day."

Arwady: Percent positivity is stable and less than 5 percent.

"There are some parts around Illinois and many parts around the country that are now well in excess of this."

Arwady: The bulk of testing is still being down through the health care system, which is what they want.

Arwady: At this point, one in eight Chicagoans have had a test.

Arwady: "Hospitalizations are looking really good here. They're the lowest since March and continuing to decline. Obviously, protecting our health care system is our top priority in this."

Arwady: "I think we're likely to see our first day in Chicago without a death probably in the next week or two, if I had to take a guess."

Arwady: That week ending June 27, there was an increase, but it wasn't statistically significant. "But keeping an eye on it."

Arwady: "Broadly, we, where you look at our numbers across compared to any other sort of city or county or state across the country, we are definitely flat and not increasing in terms of overall these indicators. Deaths you can see in particular have fallen very, very nicely ...

" and continue to do so. And percent positivity came down very well."

Arwady: "... The highest positivity is at 6 percent in that 18- to 29-year-old age group. That's of note. Also, the number of confirmed cases in terms of our cumulative is now in that 18- to 29-year-old group. We're doing a lot of testing in that group."

Arwady: "What's happened over time ... as we've moved ahead sort of into reopening here ... by sort of mid-June we saw that group in red, that 18- to 29-year-old, having the highest daily case rate of any of our age groups in the city. And then you can see in a lot of ways ...

"we're actually doing a very nice job of controlling the cases in folks who are the oldest. That's really good. That's important in terms of those groups doing a great job protecting, that we're protecting those groups as much as we can.
"But one of the concerns is of course ...

"younger individuals are perfectly capable of transmitting" the virus to older people.

We haven't seen a "big surge in that youngish group, but we are seeing them make up most of our cases."
They're worried a surge in young people could lead to a surge of cases in older people.

Arwady: They're seeing cases rise among 18- to 29-year-olds in New City and Lincoln Park.

Arwady: "By and large, feeling relatively good about where we are in Chicago," especially compared to nearby jurisdictions.
"The biggest predictor of our longterm success is whether people continue to practice the behaviors that we know work."

Arwady: "The way the quarantine order works as far as enforcement, it allows us to issue fines to people who we learn have not abided by the quarantine as required during the course of an investigation. As of right now, we have not identified anyone int hat group and have not ...

issued a fine, but certainly we continue to monitor that."

Arwady: "First and foremost, I think young Chicagoans, like all Chicagoans, are getting a little bit of COVID fatigue and may be being less careful about practicing diligent mask wearing and being careful. We know that younger Chicagoans are, by and large, less likely to have ...

"some of those severe outcomes or deaths related to COVID, although it certainly is possible.
"And I think it possible that younger Chicagoans are just less worried about COVID overall. I want to make sure that we are reminding younger Chicagoans that their behavior also can ...

"put people they love at risk, who be at higher risk of outcome.
"But we also, frankly, have seen more gatherings in those younger groups. Across the whole country, we've seen a lot of COVId that is being spread especially in social settings.
"We've done a lot fo work here in ...

"Chicago ... to think about our spaces, to think about workplaces, our religious settings and the places we gather, and done a lot of work to make them as safe as they can be. There's no such thing as an entirely safe gathering, and I want to be clear about that.
"But I think ...

"we've seen a fair bit of spread in informal settings, whether that's people gathering for parties or gatherings where some of the requirements to be open as an establishment are just not [enforced]. I worry about large indoor house parties ..." especially as younger people ...

"haven't had outlets for social interactions.
"We've been really thinking about how to do some more outreach to people in the 18- to 29-year-old group ... ."
They'll be doing more individual outreach.

Arwady: "If and when we see ... our new case rates go back over 200 cases per day, that would signal Chicago is moving back into a high incident state, and it would definitely signal a big round of increased education. We would not necessarily take an immediate step back at a ...

"full-phase level, particularly just with a hcange like that."
They're looking at how quickly they see changes. "I am absolutely happy to tolerate slight changes, slight increases."
Example: She's not worried about a change of 4.6% to 4.8% positivity over a week, etc.

Arwady: "We are very, very far below any concerning point" in terms of hospitalizations. They have thought ahead to flu season.

Arwady: "If we start to see significant impact on our health care system, that would be a spot in which we would be very quick to act."

Arwady: "It was a long time ago" when we had a day with zero COVID deaths. She's not sure what day.

Arwady on why fall in deaths: "Certainly, we have learned a lot about how to take care of COVID compared to what we knew at the beginning. There have been lots of practices and things developed even by some of our really strong hospitals here in Chicago around things like ...

"ventilator settings and appropriate practices. ... I think, also, though, we're doing a better job of diagnosing COVID earlier, faster. ... The other thing, though, is that as we're seeing ... more younger Chicagoans, and around the U.S. we're seeing more younger Americans ...

"being diagnosed, by and large younger people are less likely to have those severe outcomes, including deaths. ... And that we never overwhelmed our health care system."

Arwady: "We'll be sharing some more information about schools next week; but broadly, certainly there are ongoing conversations about what exactly school reopening is going to look like. There's lots of nuance to that. But I broadly feel good that if we are able to keep our ...

"outbreak basically in control, as it is here, we will be in a position to have some capacity for in-person instruction. I think that is important where we think about pediatric outcomes broadly, but we need to do a lot of work to make sure that can be done safely, and there ...

"is not a one-size-fits-all approach ... . Certainly one of the reasons we've been working so hard to safeguard our progress" is because schools will be one of the next big decisions made in Chicago. What happens will depend on data in Chicago the next few weeks.

The call is over.