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Why is Labour still behind in the polls? THREAD:
Though Johnson's approval ratings have fallen since the start of lockdown (+32% in April, -1% so far in July), he still has the backing of 2019 CON voters (only 15% Disapprove). So there's not many CON to LAB switchers.
Though Johnson's approval ratings have fallen since the start of lockdown (+32% in April, -1% so far in July), he still has the backing of 2019 CON voters (only 15% Disapprove). So there's not many CON to LAB switchers.
A positive for LAB is that these switchers seem to be red-wall voters, rather than inner-city voters.
Starmer is an asset to LAB rather than a liability (Twitter would make you think otherwise). He has a net +20% approval compared to net ±0% approval for the Labour Party.
Starmer is an asset to LAB rather than a liability (Twitter would make you think otherwise). He has a net +20% approval compared to net ±0% approval for the Labour Party.
...but many voters that Labour needs to win over also approve of Johnson, so not many are switching. Most of Labours' ground gained since GE2019 has been from LD voters.
Voters are getting more worried about the economy, and only 26% think Labour is the best party at managing it (compared to 50% for the Tories). Sunak is also hugely popular (net +40%) whereas many voters haven't even heard of Dodds, which is helping the Conservatives massively.
Conservatives have also a small bounce from reopening of the economy - whether they can hold onto that depends on if there is a second wave, in which case it could backfire big-time.
TLDR: Everyone is fairly popular so at the moment so nobody is changing their minds.
TLDR: Everyone is fairly popular so at the moment so nobody is changing their minds.
