It’s interesting to me that people are suggesting that the Power Fives will (finally) break away from the NCAA bc the conferences have been calling lots of shots lately (like cancelling March Madness/determining fall sports). I don’t think that’s likely, even now. Thread:

Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong on any of these fronts (bc sports business is complicated), but I tend to think the autonomy the NCAA gives P5 programs is a big reason why they’ve stuck around for so long. I think the NCAA gives P5s autonomy to appease them (and it works).

The way I see it: to an autonomous P5 conference, the NCAA is the cool babysitter that lets the kids eat ice cream for dinner if they go to bed on time—the kids have power, but only if they act collectively (and there are repercussions for that), so they stay in line.

Plus, the NCAA has financial ties that the P5s need. Specifically, exclusive television rights to March Madness. As long as the NCAA has that resource, the P5s aren’t going anywhere, especially bc they have so much freedom within the NCAA’s framework. It’s a good deal.

The P5s have a great relationship with the NCAA, but there’s also P5 business relationships with G5 schools, especially in football. The P5 needs the little guys to sell tickets while padding schedules, and providing glorified game simulations/practice for their second strings.

If P5 schools only played P5 schools all the time, those teams would be fried for bowl games (which is why an in-conference-play-only plan is almost a last resort). G5 games give P5 teams a chance to catch their breath while still staying sharp (and at a relatively low price).

Plus, these P5/G5 games are under contract and scheduled years in advance. I’d bet G5 schools would sue P5 schools if they formed their own league and left the G5 w/o that revenue (and we might see G5 lawsuits pop up with the conference-only move the Big Ten has made).

Plus, the P5s and the NCAA are on the same team. I cannot overstate this, because when people say the P5s will break off, they’re hinting at a mutiny. That’s not how the P5s are thinking right now. If they wanted to rebel against the NCAA, they would have done it years ago.

The P5s and the NCAA speak the same language. The P5s are given autonomy bc they’re less likely to rebel. That’s why P5 decision-makers are at the front of the NIL debate. The NCAA trusts the P5s to follow its lead (and they usually do bc the P5s are in it for the money, too).

And conferences need athletic revenue now more than ever, which is why the P5s are trying so hard to salvage football this fall (and why the Ivys bowed out—different revenue streams). I bet the P5s are also looking ahead to March revenue in case football doesn’t pan out.

Although the P5s have tons of power in the college sports, they are also tethered to the NCAA in some ways, and the 2020-21 season could make or break lots of athletic departments. The P5s need football and March revenue, so logically, I think they’ll stay put for now.