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Your polling primer (a thread) ...
YouGov tends to give the Tories their highest scores and Labour its lowest. YouGov may be right, but Opinium on Sunday had Labour on 37 and the Tories on 41, while Redfield and Wilton was 44/39 and Survation was 44/37 ...
YouGov tends to give the Tories their highest scores and Labour its lowest. YouGov may be right, but Opinium on Sunday had Labour on 37 and the Tories on 41, while Redfield and Wilton was 44/39 and Survation was 44/37 ...
2. All the polls are now showing MoE after a period in which Labour rose and the Tories fell. So, the Tories could be 10 points in front of 4 points in front. They were 20+ points in front when Starmer took over ...
3. There has been significant Labour progress, therefore - mainly because Starmer is not Corbyn and the Tories have scored several own goals. However, it takes a lot more than four months to undo years' worth of Labour self harm and to rebuild trust with voters ....
4. What's more, right now for most people who have not been directly affected by the virus itself the covid crisis is abstract, so why woud Tory voters in December 2019 have changed their minds? ...
5. When the autumn arrives and the furlough has unwound, the pandemic's economic realities will begin to hit and money will no longer being thrown around like confetti. That's when things may begin to look a little different. Now is relative calm, but the storm is coming. Ends.
