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Hundreds of American tourists have little-to-no power to cause outbreaks. Clusters, sure, but outbreaks are on society.
Italy were the first to ban flights from China and that ended in dismal failure.
Blanket banning countries has extremely low efficacy in infection control.
Italy were the first to ban flights from China and that ended in dismal failure.
Blanket banning countries has extremely low efficacy in infection control.
Take a bad scenario where we have 2,000 visitors from USA in the next 7 days. The positivity rates of those tested in US varies wildly from state to state, it's currently 0.8% in Connecticut.
Which obviously doesn't mean 0.8% in CT have covid, just 0.8% of those tested have it.
Which obviously doesn't mean 0.8% in CT have covid, just 0.8% of those tested have it.
Out of those 2,000 visitors, we're statistically likely (all things being equal) to see between 5 - 30 cases dependent on what part of the country they arrive from.
If they're mostly coming from the upper east coast (Rhode Island, Boston), it'd be on the lower end of that.
If they're mostly coming from the upper east coast (Rhode Island, Boston), it'd be on the lower end of that.
Think about what it means to add 2,000 from one location in any given week.
It's adding 0.04% to the population (and you're looking at a -0.05% going out of the country).
So we're still left with the behaviour of 5 million that determines whether clusters turn into outbreaks.
It's adding 0.04% to the population (and you're looking at a -0.05% going out of the country).
So we're still left with the behaviour of 5 million that determines whether clusters turn into outbreaks.
There's some xenophobic undercurrents creeping into the America stuff.
Should we allow American tourism from all 50 states?
No. Trump is a tool trying to get them all killed.
Would it be their fault if we have outbreaks?
No. All of this is still in your hands, the 5 million.
Should we allow American tourism from all 50 states?
No. Trump is a tool trying to get them all killed.
Would it be their fault if we have outbreaks?
No. All of this is still in your hands, the 5 million.
There was the same nonsense at the start of this with the Italian rugby fans.
There is no evidence Italian rugby fans caused any spike in infection.
The early evidence of infection seeding in Ireland tentatively points to Birmingham, London, Boston and Copenhagen.
There is no evidence Italian rugby fans caused any spike in infection.
The early evidence of infection seeding in Ireland tentatively points to Birmingham, London, Boston and Copenhagen.
The focus on who seeds an outbreak is completely misguided and it ends in victim blaming.
We saw that with AIDS for decades, people being demonized and ostracised.
It doesn't matter where covid came from - or how - because we have the collective power to stop it in its tracks.
We saw that with AIDS for decades, people being demonized and ostracised.
It doesn't matter where covid came from - or how - because we have the collective power to stop it in its tracks.
If you come across an American tourist, show them the same hospitality and kindness you normally would.
It's not their fault they're here and how they got here is completely irrelevant to how you should treat them.
That especially applies if they're dummies.
It's not their fault they're here and how they got here is completely irrelevant to how you should treat them.
That especially applies if they're dummies.
Texans not wearing masks? Floridians think it's a hoax? MAGA hats on, Trump is God?
Ok, cool.
That's only a problem if stupidity is contagious.
They can't cause big outbreaks if society here in Ireland does believe in Covid, does believe in hand washing and social distancing.
Ok, cool.
That's only a problem if stupidity is contagious.
They can't cause big outbreaks if society here in Ireland does believe in Covid, does believe in hand washing and social distancing.
I wouldn't ban tourism completely from USA if it was up to me, I would target the Red States where infection is widespread.
Connecticut hasn't had a single death for 3 consecutive days, a tourist from there would pose the same negligible risk as someone from Cork would.
Connecticut hasn't had a single death for 3 consecutive days, a tourist from there would pose the same negligible risk as someone from Cork would.
There's been many studies into the efficacy of banning flights from countries - it's borderline useless.
What has shown higher efficacy (still low) is targeting specific routes where R is greatest.
We should do that. Connecticut is 3,000km from Texas, it's not the same place.
What has shown higher efficacy (still low) is targeting specific routes where R is greatest.
We should do that. Connecticut is 3,000km from Texas, it's not the same place.
Being cynical, it's possible delay on the Safe List is partly down to *hoping* the situation in UK and US improves.
Blanket banning flights from UK and US is inconceivable, too many Irish citizens live in those places and you should never refuse the return of your own people.
Blanket banning flights from UK and US is inconceivable, too many Irish citizens live in those places and you should never refuse the return of your own people.
Tourism from hotspots is a different story (should be prevented) but you absolutely should show them that they are very welcome here.
They're not out on the lash 24/7. They're coming here to look at the majestic Cliffs of Moher, the Giants Causeway, Glenoe waterfall, Newgrange.
They're not out on the lash 24/7. They're coming here to look at the majestic Cliffs of Moher, the Giants Causeway, Glenoe waterfall, Newgrange.
Outbreaks aren't determined by migrants or tourists.
It's by Irish society washing their hands, coughing into their elbow, masks, staying a solid distance from people and maintaining good practices.
We do all that, we continue to contain and suppress covid.
Céad míle fáilte.
It's by Irish society washing their hands, coughing into their elbow, masks, staying a solid distance from people and maintaining good practices.
We do all that, we continue to contain and suppress covid.
Céad míle fáilte.
What anti-tourist sentiment misses is covid19 is already here.
Janet Napolitano famously told John McCain she wasn't willing to ban flights from Mexico because you can't keep a virus out that's already here.
It doesn't matter if it's 30 cases or 120 cases, it's already here.
Janet Napolitano famously told John McCain she wasn't willing to ban flights from Mexico because you can't keep a virus out that's already here.
It doesn't matter if it's 30 cases or 120 cases, it's already here.
Whether it's 50 Irish coming from holiday in Ibiza or 250 American's who persisted with their once-in-a-lifetime holiday, it doesn't change the transmission dynamics of a close contact virus.
It's always in the hands of society if clusters are contained or morph into outbreak.
It's always in the hands of society if clusters are contained or morph into outbreak.
I try to give a dispassionate opinion because there's too much focus on the negatives.
Dame Lane and a handful of American tourists get all the headlines but the reality is most people are being pure sound and tourism is at historic low levels.
You're all doing really well.
Dame Lane and a handful of American tourists get all the headlines but the reality is most people are being pure sound and tourism is at historic low levels.
You're all doing really well.
