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For those seemingly surprised about the tanking U.S. air travel recovery, let’s review the situation (thread).
From the outset, @IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac was calling it the “biggest crisis we have ever had in front of us.” (7 April)
From the outset, @IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac was calling it the “biggest crisis we have ever had in front of us.” (7 April)
And a week before, IATA chief economist Brian Pearce said the industry should not expect a “significant recovery” until at least 2021 (31 March).
And that was before we really knew how bad COVID would get. https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/1244964789220147201?s=20
And that was before we really knew how bad COVID would get. https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/1244964789220147201?s=20
Those are international and not U.S. views, you say?
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said they expect a 2-3 year recovery on 22 April - a forecast that does not bely a majority of U.S. air travel being back by year-end. https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/1252936729671204864?s=20
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said they expect a 2-3 year recovery on 22 April - a forecast that does not bely a majority of U.S. air travel being back by year-end. https://twitter.com/e_russell/status/1252936729671204864?s=20
About the same time as Bastian’s comments, Wall Street was warning that the U.S. industry would be at least a quarter smaller by year-end https://bit.ly/2XPW76r
And @IATA was warning us about a stalling domestic air travel recovery in China the day before Bastian’s comments. https://bit.ly/2XWR8Rx
Fast forward to June, airlines were talking about traveler demand to “open spaces” - think Florida or Steamboat - and it looked like a recovery, albeit a slow one, may be upon us.
Southwest even outlined plans for a nearly full schedule by year-end. https://bit.ly/3c8QfZy
Southwest even outlined plans for a nearly full schedule by year-end. https://bit.ly/3c8QfZy
Then @baker_never_y reminded us that summer flying, virus or not, was not a “harbinger of solid recovery” and that an “autumn of discontent” was like ahead for airlines (10 June). https://bit.ly/2UWfuZk
That "autumn of discontent" forecast was reinforced by @IATA a week later when its economist Brian Pearce reiterated that the first wave of COVID was far from over, and airlines couldn't plan for the fall. (16 June)
Airlines began to publicly recognize this by end-June, when Delta CEO Bastian told staff that the airline would likely have to pull some of the August flights it had planned to reinstate on rising COVID case counts. https://bit.ly/2YvxNXj
“With COVID and other airlines’ expansion, I’m pretty bearish on the fall,” Sun Country CEO Jude Bricker said at the beginning of July. This from a leisure-oriented airline that should see an outsize benefit from a leisure-travel first recovery. https://bit.ly/38Cmm3B
The left shoe dropped when United, just a week after unveiling a robust ~25,000 flight strong August schedule, backpedaled and cut those plans on rising COVID infections and new travel restrictions. https://bit.ly/2ZPr6P8
“The United States was never close taming this virus,” wrote @BrianSumers yesterday. He is right, and we all know he is right.
So let's be realistic - the pandemic is still raging and it's going to be a long time until travel gets back to normal. https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dashed-for-a-quick-u-s-airline-recovery-amid-coronavirus-spikes/
So let's be realistic - the pandemic is still raging and it's going to be a long time until travel gets back to normal. https://skift.com/2020/07/09/hopes-dashed-for-a-quick-u-s-airline-recovery-amid-coronavirus-spikes/
"The continued growth of the virus through the Sun Belt, coupled with quarantine restrictions being implemented in large markets in the northern part of the country, give us renewed caution about further schedule additions at this time."
-Delta CEO Ed Bastian on July 9. $DAL
-Delta CEO Ed Bastian on July 9. $DAL
