Together with @ukasz_maslanka we prepared a bulletin on tensions between #France and #Turkey. The timing could not be better as on Monday the #EU is meeting to discuss the bloc policy towards Turkey. Should the #EU sanction for #Libya? Thread.

https://pism.pl/publications/The_FrancoTurkish_Tensions

Ok, let's start from the basics. We think that Franco-Turkish dispute goes beyond the Libyan context and is a result of differences in threat perception and ways to eliminate them. Therefore, it will have a negative impact on NATO and Turkish-European relations, even if there is

breakthrough in the Libyan conflict. That being said, we should ask about both sides perceptions.

So what's France's view? aims to reinforce its influence in the Mediterranean, vital to its economic and security interests. The most serious threat in security area

are jihadists. This is why in the past FR had decided to cooperate with the #YPG, which angered Turkey, and later decided to support Haftar, believing he would quickly stabilise the country. Moreover, France considers #Sarraj government to be influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood

and MB for the French equals the instrument of Turkish foreign policy in the region. France's stance in Libya is also influenced by its close relationship with other #GNA adversaries - United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. What is the foundation of France's

relationship with these countries? A fight against MB? Nope, the lucrative defense conracts.

But what is the most important point here? That France sees Turkey as a more important strategic challenge than Russia, because TR undermines #NATO cohesion from inside, blackmails the

#EU with mass-migration, and destabilises the domestic security of European countries with Turkish diaspora. This point to a really deep fracture.

What's Turkey's view? see its involvement in Libya as a key to its policy in the Eastern Mediterranean. An agreement on maritime

jurisdiction, signed with the GNA, seeks to block regional energy projects Turkey deems harmful and help it resolve delimitation disputes in a favourable way.

When it comes to the MB, the Turks see it as a key for improving Turkey's position in the Middle East. Here the

disagreement with France serves Turkey's DM aims, as it allows politicians to present the state as an anti-imperialist force that aims for the good of the region’s societies, not their own interests, to the liking of the conservative-nationalist electorate in Turkey.

Yet, I think that the dispute with France also has deeper meaning for Turkey—it is a part of its quest for higher status within NATO. The Turks want their security interests respected on an equal footing with those of other big members, as evidenced by the French and American

cooperation with the YPG and NATO’s subsequent refusal to recognise it as a terrorist organisation.

Conclusions?

France’s worries over Turkey are justified. By bolstering its position in Libya, the country will gain further instruments of pressure on the EU, and its policy in

recent years suggests the Turks will be prone to using them. However, balancing Turkey with Russia as France suggests is not a preferable solution to the EU as it may reinforce Russia’s influence in the Mediterranean. A much better solution would be to strengthen the UN-led

Libyan peace process. The end of French support for Haftar would increase the chances of success of the peace process and strengthen the EU’s position in Libya towards Turkey.

Let's get back to the first question then. Should the #EU sanction Turkey for its Libya policy?

We think this is not a good idea. France's stance on Libya has already had a negative impact on the coherence of EU policy towards the conflict, and imposing sanctions on Turkey, as proposed by France, could only deepen the differences between the MS.

A better solution would be strengthening the IRINI operation and signifying the need to respect the UN embargo by all parties. Sealing the border between Egypt and Libya could be a real step towards ensuring this.

And one last thing. We think that The Franco-Turkish tensions are

also an offshoot of U.S. policy since its uncoordinated withdrawal from the Middle East and disagreements with allies regarding threats on the Southern Flank have spurred rivarly within the Alliance. Let's hope that the U.S. administration will be able to notice this and find a

formula to bring the positions of France and Turkey closer. End.

And, of course, more on the @PISM_Poland website.