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THREAD (1/8): 
Will the Pandemic Increase Russia’s Economic Dependence on China?
Our take with @AlexGabuev for @CarnegieRussia:
https://carnegie.ru/2020/07/08/will-pandemic-increase-russia-s-economic-dependence-on-china-pub-81893
Will the Pandemic Increase Russia’s Economic Dependence on China? Our take with @AlexGabuev for @CarnegieRussia:
https://carnegie.ru/2020/07/08/will-pandemic-increase-russia-s-economic-dependence-on-china-pub-81893
2: Crises aside there are several objective reasons for the Sino-Russian rapprochement:
-The structures of their economies complement each other
-The political regimes are similar
-The strategic need of cross-border cooperation and trade https://carnegietsinghua.org/2019/10/30/are-china-russia-relations-getting-too-close-for-comfort-pub-80238
-The structures of their economies complement each other
-The political regimes are similar
-The strategic need of cross-border cooperation and trade https://carnegietsinghua.org/2019/10/30/are-china-russia-relations-getting-too-close-for-comfort-pub-80238
3: The pandemic is accelerating a wide-ranging set of processes inside both that are helping pull them toward each other. Trade with Beijing becomes increasingly important for Russia to offset the immediate shocks, as China appears to be the first major economy to recover.
that are helping pull them toward each other. Trade with Beijing becomes increasingly important for Russia to offset the immediate shocks, as China appears to be the first major economy to recover.
4: Russia’s economic exposure to China continues to grow as a result of the pandemic. In Q1 2020, ’s share in trade turnover reached an all-time high of 17.3% ($31.8 bln) compared to 15.8% ($34.1 bln) last year, despite the decline in oil prices. https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1265902487539798017
’s share in trade turnover reached an all-time high of 17.3% ($31.8 bln) compared to 15.8% ($34.1 bln) last year, despite the decline in oil prices. https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1265902487539798017
5: A gradual reorientation of Russian oil exports from west to east is an important factor. In the telecom sector, Russia’s top-3 telecom operators have relied on equipment produced by Huawei and ZTE alongside hardware supplied by Nokia and Ericsson. https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1274707691395579904
equipment produced by Huawei and ZTE alongside hardware supplied by Nokia and Ericsson. https://twitter.com/AlexGabuev/status/1274707691395579904
6: As with the 2014 crisis, the pandemic is helping to reorient Russia’s trade from west to east. But eventually bringing trade with China to the same levels seen with the EU (~40% of total trade turnover) will have potentially far-reaching consequences. https://carnegie.ru/commentary/80379
7: The strategic landscape for Russia is likely to be less favorable. Learn more about Russian foreign policy after the #CoronavirusPandemic in @CarnegieRussia's essay collection.
http://ceip.org/p-81890
http://ceip.org/p-81890
8: To read more about China's growing influence in Eurasia go to our special project's page #PaxSinica: https://carnegie.ru/specialprojects/paxsinica/?lang=en
