my concern is that Xi is on a power trip right now: ‘Got away with’ the unthinkable in HK and fully understands how insane Trump is and the general domestic/political situation there is.

If ever there were a window of opportunity for a bad idea they’re firmly committed to... https://twitter.com/wonkvj/status/1281507177580998656

so it’s the convergence of several factors:

- the US at a post-War historical weak point

- PLA modernization 80-90% complete

- ROC military at it’s weakest point ever (IMO)

- power-mad absolutist dictator who likes to gamble [and keeps ‘winning’]

More like the Hitler enthralled with a ‘scientific’ understanding of national destiny (nationalist restoration) and someone who makes increasingly irrational decisions to keep gambling b/c of the winning streak.

https://twitter.com/wonkvj/status/1281510387590901761?s=21 https://twitter.com/wonkvj/status/1281510387590901761

Basically new major arms sales since the late 1990’s. Their navy is a joke, ROC AF airframes are so old and worn they’re starting to fall from the sky, they really need subs and no one will sell.

TL;DR they’re basically equipped to fight a late 90’s PLA. https://twitter.com/alon_levy/status/1281510666780717056?s=21