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Amazon now has a 1.6 trillion $ market cap.
If it has to deliver 6% p.a. return over the next 20 years, it has to be worth 5.1 tn $ in 2040.
Assuming by then it's achieved world domination and become a "matured" business, it may trade at a 20-30 P/E range.
If it has to deliver 6% p.a. return over the next 20 years, it has to be worth 5.1 tn $ in 2040.
Assuming by then it's achieved world domination and become a "matured" business, it may trade at a 20-30 P/E range.
At 30 P/E (a growth multiple), that would mean it has to deliver 170 bn $ in profit.
Adjusting for 2% inflation, that's 115 bn $ in today's PAT.
That's almost what Apple+Google+Microsoft together make now. These are among the strongest tech moats that exist in the world today.
Adjusting for 2% inflation, that's 115 bn $ in today's PAT.
That's almost what Apple+Google+Microsoft together make now. These are among the strongest tech moats that exist in the world today.
2040 AMZN > Today's Apple/GOOG/MSFT combined?
The other way to look at is who would have to go bankrupt for the profit pool of over 100 bn $ shifting to AMZN. AMZN's gain will have to be someone else's loss as the profit pie only expands slowly.
Whose? - Retail? FMCG? FAMNG?
The other way to look at is who would have to go bankrupt for the profit pool of over 100 bn $ shifting to AMZN. AMZN's gain will have to be someone else's loss as the profit pie only expands slowly.
Whose? - Retail? FMCG? FAMNG?
If this does happen - you make 6% p.a. If not?
Are those good odds to play with?
"man muss immer umkehren" - "invert, always invert"
Are those good odds to play with?
"man muss immer umkehren" - "invert, always invert"
