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1) Tweetstorm: To overcome lockdown blues, I have been going over NEPSE data over the last 20 years! Here are some of interesting observations
2) On 9/11/2001 (pls don’t ask me why I am starting with this date- this is first data point I have 
), NESPE closed at 274.34
), NESPE closed at 274.34
3) On 3/18/2005, almost four and half year (or 767 trading days) later, NEPSE closed at 274.35 – almost at the same level as in 9/11/2001.
4) Between 9/11/2001 and 3/18/2005, Max level that NEPSE reached was 300.36 (on 11/19/2005) – an increase of 9.5% compared to starting level of 274.34. Min level NEPSE reached was 186.22 (on 03/15/2002) – drawdown of 32% from 274.34
5) NEPSE first crossed 300 level on 11/19/2001.
6) After crossing the 300 level, it took NEPSE approx. 5 years (or 1057 trading days) to cross the 400 mark which it reached on 10/10/2006.
7)NEPSE cross 500 level on 12/13/2006 – only 2 months (or 33 trading days) after crossing 400 level.
8)Over the next 18 months, NEPSE increased by 2.35X (from the 500 level) and peaked at 1175.38 on 8/31/2008
9 )After reaching high of 1175.38 on 8/31/2008, NEPSE closed on 6/15/2011 at 292 – a drawdown of whopping 75% over period of approx. 3 years (606 trading days)
10) From the low of 292 on 6/15/2011, after approx. 2 years (545 trading days) NEPSE increased by 2X and reached 584 on 10/20/2013
11) From 584 on 10/20/2013, after approx. 2 years (406 trading days) NEPSE increased by 2X and reached 1192 on 08/19/2015
12) NEPSE reached a high of 1881.45 on 07/27/2016. Compared to a low of 292 on 6/15/2011 – this was an increase of 6.44X
13) After reaching a high of 1881.45 on 07/27/2016. NEPSE has been on downward trend and has not reached a new high (from 1881.45). From a high of 1881.45, the lowest level was 1100.58 on 03/03/2019 – a drawdown of 42%.
14) Takeaways: There are long period of time when NEPSE is either flat or trades range bound.
15) Most of the gains are made during short period of time. Hence, given its difficult to time market, and as Buffett wisely said, most money is made not in buying and selling but in waiting.
16) Interest rate & liquidity impacts NEPSE to a large extent. This effect is more pronounced compared to other emerging mkts (where FII play a key role in stock market but FII’s buying/selling are not impacted by domestic liquidity but solely by underlying company’s fundamentals
The end!
