Mini thread:

Is Kenya's recent heavy lobbying for SL's recognition a gift for SL or a trap? Kenya stepped up it's support for SL's statehood after SL and Taiwan officially announced bilateral relations on July 1 2020.

Kenya knew of SL for 30 years but held out, what's new? /1

What's new is that SL and Taiwan now have official relations, and Kenya and Taiwan have their own history.

In 2016 Kenya jailed a dozen or so Taiwanese workers on fraud charges. China asked Kenya to deport them to Beijing, and they did.
/2

A large amount of Kenya's infrastructural development is credited to China. Kenya is Africa's third largest recipient of Chinese loans, china accounts for a huge portion of Kenya's foreign debt. Knowing this, it's clear why they handed Taiwanese workers upon China's request /3

Therefore what does Kenya stand to gain by driving the recognition train for SL? Any supposed bid for recognition at the UNSC would likely be vetoed by China, since SL already made itself an annoyance to the nation. This is a trap from Beijing itself, and here's why /4

Kenya seeks to distract SL from further developing deeper ties with Taiwan, since we understand Kenya is acting upon the interests of Beijing, it's clear that Beijing's public statement of endorsing "One Somalia" virtually ends any chance of recognition coming from Nairobi /5

Kenya will only go far enough until SL believes that recognition is imminent & would then implicitly request that SL formally/informally end its relations with Taiwan. If SL would go onto do that, China would simply block/veto Kenya at the UN, and SL would've then lost it all /6

This then would be a win for China and Kenya would get it's due, perhaps a little relief on its debts or an extra project here or there.

Either way, Landers on social media should really broaden their horizons when it comes to geopolitics. No such thing as a free meal. /End