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the CDC is now publishing all cause deaths figures, by state, over the period from 2/1/2020 to 7/4/2020.
this is literally cherry picked to show covid at its worst.
they express them as a % of expected deaths.
i ran this against degree of lockdown based on google mobility.
this is literally cherry picked to show covid at its worst.
they express them as a % of expected deaths.
i ran this against degree of lockdown based on google mobility.
as you can see, the results are not encouraging for team lockdown. there is significant correlation between more lockdown and higher expected deaths.
in fact, not a single one of the 7 states that did not lock down is even at 100% of expected deaths. all are low.
in fact, not a single one of the 7 states that did not lock down is even at 100% of expected deaths. all are low.
the 7 states with most lockdown show 5 above 100% and avg 117% of expected deaths vs 95% for those that did not lock down, a whopping 22 percentage point variance.
the states with <100% expected deaths averaged -21% google mobility.
those > 100 averaged -38% (80% bigger drop)
the states with <100% expected deaths averaged -21% google mobility.
those > 100 averaged -38% (80% bigger drop)
i added in some of the states everyone seems to be currently worried about simply because i presumed people would ask.
the tool is here (table 2) if these is some other state you are interested in.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
the tool is here (table 2) if these is some other state you are interested in.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
all in all, this seems yet another serious issue for the lockdown proponents.
correlation is not causality, so this does NOT prove that lockdowns cause deaths. (though it is consistent with it)
but causality with inverse correlation is a deeply iffy idea.
correlation is not causality, so this does NOT prove that lockdowns cause deaths. (though it is consistent with it)
but causality with inverse correlation is a deeply iffy idea.
so it does demonstrate that locking down did not reduce all cause deaths.
and, as we have seen previously, this same relationship holds for covid deaths. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1261705308302270466?s=20
and, as we have seen previously, this same relationship holds for covid deaths. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1261705308302270466?s=20
so let's all keep this in mind as panicky state governors flout decades of established pandemic response policy and chase lockdowns that are literally advised against in the epidemiological guidelines.
it's not science and it never was.
and it does not work.
#DemandBetter
it's not science and it never was.
and it does not work.
#DemandBetter
ADDENDUM:
as i apparently did not foreground this enough, no, this is not driven by reverse causality.
covid case counts do not predict lockdown intensity with any significance. it would not invert the R2 on any of this data. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1255553218014109696?s=20
as i apparently did not foreground this enough, no, this is not driven by reverse causality.
covid case counts do not predict lockdown intensity with any significance. it would not invert the R2 on any of this data. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1255553218014109696?s=20
