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A short thread about one of "ممفد" theories on how to reform Lebanon.
Charbel Nahas, is a very educated and not a corrupt politician who is aiming to reform Lebanon and fight corruption, but regardless of all his opinions the one related Hezbullah's weapons is the weakest 1/X
Charbel Nahas, is a very educated and not a corrupt politician who is aiming to reform Lebanon and fight corruption, but regardless of all his opinions the one related Hezbullah's weapons is the weakest 1/X
The idea Charbel has is that Lebanon as a whole should carry the weight of resistance and should be part of the dettering power against the IDF, and that Hezbullah has carried this weight for too long alone.
He wants a tran-secterian and a tran-religious resistance. 2/X
He wants a tran-secterian and a tran-religious resistance. 2/X
He thinks the solution is that Hezbullah should merge in the Lebanese army and give it all its weapons and pass on its experience. This way Lebanon as a whole, from all sects, religions, and political parties, can play a role in defending Lebanon.
This has been stated alot. 3/X
This has been stated alot. 3/X
Although this sounds noble and this is actually what should happen in any country, where all defend sovereignty...this is not the case here and he said so many times
Charbel throughout the years kept on saying, Lebanese have never been united around the idea of resisting. 4/X
Charbel throughout the years kept on saying, Lebanese have never been united around the idea of resisting. 4/X
Charbel knows that Lebanese are not all anti Israel, and many already worked with it and at least half are willing to sign a peace deal.He knows Lebanese were not willing to fight the occupation before and are not willing to do anything now Hezbullah carried this weight alone 5/X
But this is not my point here, my point is Hezbullah and how to fight Israel.
I'll explain my point in 3 parts. The Lebanese army, Hezbullah's experience, and the IDF as a super power. 6/X
I'll explain my point in 3 parts. The Lebanese army, Hezbullah's experience, and the IDF as a super power. 6/X
The Lebanese army is a conventional army supported solely by NATO. It is considered an ally to the USA, the guardian of Israel.
The Lebanese army is not allowed to engage Israel and is not allowed to use any of its weapons against the IDF. This is a fact. 7/X
The Lebanese army is not allowed to engage Israel and is not allowed to use any of its weapons against the IDF. This is a fact. 7/X
The last time this happened, in 2010, a US military delegation came to Lebanon to investigate why American weapons were used to fire at IDF soldiers. All USA aid is conditioned for internal policing work and dettering Hezbullah
The army is not allowed to engage drones 8/X
The army is not allowed to engage drones 8/X
The army was not allowed in 1999 to fight Al Qaeda in north Lebanon.
When the army killed an Al Qaeda cell leader, who happened to have an American citizenship, a high ranking official came to Lebanon demanding answers and literally stopped the US aid to the Army. 9/X
When the army killed an Al Qaeda cell leader, who happened to have an American citizenship, a high ranking official came to Lebanon demanding answers and literally stopped the US aid to the Army. 9/X
In 2014, the Lebanese army was not allowed to follow the Al Nusra front who kidnapped 17 security forces.
It was not even allowed to launch the 2017 campaign and cooperate with Hezbullah.
Hezbullah saved the retreating soldiers in 2014 and did the campaign almost alone. 10/X
It was not even allowed to launch the 2017 campaign and cooperate with Hezbullah.
Hezbullah saved the retreating soldiers in 2014 and did the campaign almost alone. 10/X
General Mchinzie today said, we aim to see the day when Israel is not threatened by its neighbors.
The USA won't allow the army to form any threat to Israel. 11/X
The USA won't allow the army to form any threat to Israel. 11/X
Second of all, Hezbullah as an organization is almost as big as the army, therefore considering merging it with the Lebanese army is something the Lebanese budget can't afford. The budget is already just over inflated salaries for officers who never accomplished anything. 12/X
And let's not kid ourselves, how will the ranks be given.
Hezbullah commanders and soldiers won't be simply asked to answer to less experienced officers and NCOs.
Lebanese army soldiers also won't answer to Hezbullah commanders. 12/X
Hezbullah commanders and soldiers won't be simply asked to answer to less experienced officers and NCOs.
Lebanese army soldiers also won't answer to Hezbullah commanders. 12/X
Hezbullah's ideology and motive is what kept it this strong. Hezbullah's unpaid volunteers and natives to south Lebanon that kept it strong and effective.
Hezbullah, if it lost its current structure and organization, it won't be effective against Israel anymore. 13/X
Hezbullah, if it lost its current structure and organization, it won't be effective against Israel anymore. 13/X
This is where I come to my third point. IDF was able to defeat the largest Arab armies, who had more manpower and more weapons that can be fitted into the 10452km2 of Lebanon.
Israel has air and naval superiority that will allow it to defeat any conventional army it faces.14/X
Israel has air and naval superiority that will allow it to defeat any conventional army it faces.14/X
Why do you think non state actors were able to accomplish in today's warfare what conventional armies failed to do? It's because they were able to strike and at the same time be safe from any devastating organizational blows
Hezbullah was able to defeat the IDF due to that. 15/X
Hezbullah was able to defeat the IDF due to that. 15/X
Hezbullah relied on secrecy, its commanders are unknown. Its HQs are unknown. Its bases are unknown. Its forces don't have barracks, its ammo depots are underground, its units are shadows.
Its keeps secrets and does not have known targets. This is what defeated Israel. 16/X
Its keeps secrets and does not have known targets. This is what defeated Israel. 16/X
You can not defeat what you can not see. Israel, and no one on earth, is able to destroy something without a presence
If Hezbullah merges with the Lebanese army it'll be like any over buffed, Egyptian like, army. It will be any easy target to be crushed with airforce 17/
If Hezbullah merges with the Lebanese army it'll be like any over buffed, Egyptian like, army. It will be any easy target to be crushed with airforce 17/
The army in 2006 lost 50 soldiers and it was not even part of the war, that's almost 1/3 of what Hezbullah suffered.
Imagine what it would have faced if it was actually part of the war, total annihilation. The army, any army, is an easy target. This would never work. 18/X
Imagine what it would have faced if it was actually part of the war, total annihilation. The army, any army, is an easy target. This would never work. 18/X
I hope soon Charbel drops this idea, that I could have even explained more but for the sake of time didn't, because it's not feasible and it will destroy the only detternece and power Lebanon has. It won't happen. I'm talking for his own sake
Video: From his party gathering. END
Video: From his party gathering. END
