Read on Twitter
I thought I'd summarise @GarethDennis video taking down Chris Packham's case against HS2 that's doing the rounds on YouTube. Here goes... THREAD 1/n
Claim: HS2 won't be carbon neutral until well into the next century.
Gareth: Only if you look at HS2 in isolation, where actually considering the main benefits to the railway network as a whole. So this is demonstrably false. It's a complete misreading of the numbers. 2/n
Gareth: Only if you look at HS2 in isolation, where actually considering the main benefits to the railway network as a whole. So this is demonstrably false. It's a complete misreading of the numbers. 2/n
Gareth (cont'd): Also to give you a sense of scale, the entire HS2 project emissions is about equivalent to a single month of UK road transport emissions. 3/n
Claim: HS2 won't facilitate shift from air travel and will create high speed connections to airports.
Gareth: The trains that kill capacity most capacity are the fast ones that don't stop anywhere. They make other trains have to slow down, get out of the way, and so on. 4/n
Gareth: The trains that kill capacity most capacity are the fast ones that don't stop anywhere. They make other trains have to slow down, get out of the way, and so on. 4/n
Gareth (cont'd): Putting the fast trains on their own lines to free up capacity is the whole point. Now you can't turn airports off overnight, but what you can do is ensure that the domestic leg of any multi-hop flight can instead by done by train. 5/n
Gareth (cont'd): There are over 170 flights a day into London from various Scottish belt airports alone. That's not even including Birmingham, Leeds, etc. Those internal flights shouldn't exist. 6/n
Claim: HS2 will destroy enormous amounts of ancient world and sites of scientific interest.
Gareth: This is a made-up claim based on a worst case scenario analysis using a methodology that no one has ever used before. 7/n
Gareth: This is a made-up claim based on a worst case scenario analysis using a methodology that no one has ever used before. 7/n
Gareth (cont'd): HS2 impacts on less than 1/10000th of the ancient woodland in the UK and namely y less than (for example) the RIS2 road programme, for instance. 8/n
Claim: Wildlife will be displaced or destroyed.
Gareth: There is no evidence for this. 9/n
Gareth: There is no evidence for this. 9/n
Claim: HS2 will need 6-10m litres of water a day.
Gareth: Yes. It's a big number. It's a lot. But it's actually not a lot in the context of overall water consumption. 10/n
Gareth: Yes. It's a big number. It's a lot. But it's actually not a lot in the context of overall water consumption. 10/n
Claim: Aquifers and chalk streams will be drained.
Gareth: This is total quackery. These are the best understood water systems in the whole world. The idea that railway engineers would put London's water supply at risk for high speed rail is crazy. 11/n
Gareth: This is total quackery. These are the best understood water systems in the whole world. The idea that railway engineers would put London's water supply at risk for high speed rail is crazy. 11/n
Claim: HS2 can't even meet its target of no new net biodiversity.
Gareth: Why not? The project should be held to account for doing so. 12/n
Gareth: Why not? The project should be held to account for doing so. 12/n
Claim: Half the trees planted already have died.
Gareth: The hottest year on record and drought did a lot of damage. Ultimately it's on the government. It's cheaper to plant new trees than look after existing ones, they go for the cheaper option. Shouldn't happen. 13/n
Gareth: The hottest year on record and drought did a lot of damage. Ultimately it's on the government. It's cheaper to plant new trees than look after existing ones, they go for the cheaper option. Shouldn't happen. 13/n
Gareth (cont'd): The dead trees have been replaced and replanted. It's not the gotcha that he thinks it is. 14/n
Claim: It's a massive waste of money.
Gareth (cont'd): This isn't how borrowing for infrastructure works. Sustainable infrastructure, rather than say 4000 miles of new road that Rishi Sunak was talking about, creates new jobs in railways and related occupations. 15/n
Gareth (cont'd): This isn't how borrowing for infrastructure works. Sustainable infrastructure, rather than say 4000 miles of new road that Rishi Sunak was talking about, creates new jobs in railways and related occupations. 15/n
Claim: HS2 is already massively over budget.
Gareth: No, it isn't. The budget hasn't even been completely set yet. 16/n
Gareth: No, it isn't. The budget hasn't even been completely set yet. 16/n
Claim: HS2 will cost well over £100bn.
Gareth: Again, no it isn't. 17/n
Gareth: Again, no it isn't. 17/n
(In fairness, a flustered Gareth then talks about the New Deal of the 1950s, he means the 1930s. Point still stands, it is obviously not "the most expensive job creation scheme in history".) 18/n
Claim: HS2 is already obsolete.
Gareth: HS2 will be the most modern railway operating in the world, not only technologically but also in terms of its integration into the wider transport network. It is a farcical claim. 19/n
Gareth: HS2 will be the most modern railway operating in the world, not only technologically but also in terms of its integration into the wider transport network. It is a farcical claim. 19/n
Claim: HS2 is an elitist project for business people. Covid-19 has made the market disappear.
Gareth: Have you been on a train? All kinds of people riding on them. It frees up capacity on the existing railway. In the timescale of HS2, Covid-19 is a blip. 20/n
Gareth: Have you been on a train? All kinds of people riding on them. It frees up capacity on the existing railway. In the timescale of HS2, Covid-19 is a blip. 20/n
Gareth (cont'd): If you look at the data, flexible working means more people traveling long distance. Living further out, new friendships. In any case, only 1 in 4 people can actually work from home. Transport demand is not going away. 21/n
Claim: Rather than spend money on HS2, spend it on broadband for all.
Gareth: Good luck sending your mum over broadband. In any case, it's a false dichotomy, there is no such either/or. Do both. 22/n
Gareth: Good luck sending your mum over broadband. In any case, it's a false dichotomy, there is no such either/or. Do both. 22/n
Claim: Let's invest in more local transport...
Gareth: HS2 IS the local train revolution enabler. See how many trains pass through places on the main line without stopping. There are other things that need to happen, but it is the key to 2x or 3x capacity we already have. 23/n
Gareth: HS2 IS the local train revolution enabler. See how many trains pass through places on the main line without stopping. There are other things that need to happen, but it is the key to 2x or 3x capacity we already have. 23/n
Claim: Communities have been destroyed by HS2.
Gareth: Where? Show me one. No evidence, again. 24/n
Gareth: Where? Show me one. No evidence, again. 24/n
Claim: HS2 is not listening to people.
Gareth: The change list for HS2 responding to local concerns and pressure groups is enormous. It's a matter of public record. 25/n
Gareth: The change list for HS2 responding to local concerns and pressure groups is enormous. It's a matter of public record. 25/n
(I should add here that Gareth is a railway engineer with considerable expertise in his field, who is not working on HS2.) 26/n
Claim: HS2 is anti-environment.
Gareth: Let's be clear, given what HS2 gives us in terms of rail capacity, this statement is essentially coming out against rail. That's so dangerous given UK rail is vital to getting people out of cars and reducing carbon emissions. 27/27
Gareth: Let's be clear, given what HS2 gives us in terms of rail capacity, this statement is essentially coming out against rail. That's so dangerous given UK rail is vital to getting people out of cars and reducing carbon emissions. 27/27
Final word: Gareth's claims, not mine (though obviously since I’ve taken the trouble to write up, I find this case persuasive). But as my bio says, science not intuition, I’m open to correction, bring evidence.
