"A fuel leak from  #Safer would be far more catastrophic than the recent spill of over 20,000 tons of diesel in the Ambarnaya River in Russia or even the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska."

My latest unpacks the Safer Crisis & proposés 4 recommendations. https://www.mei.edu/publications/defusing-floating-bomb-yemens-impending-safer-disaster

"Having given Yemen’s Houthi rebels control over the ports of Hodeida on humanitarian grounds as part of the 2018 #StockholmAgreement, the international community has failed to address looming environmental, economic & political threats presented by the decaying Safer vessel"

Potential implications

1) A spill would pollute the #RedSea, generate toxic gases, damage coral reef and marine life, and destroy fish habitat — all in a “delicate #marine ecosystem” that is home to “corals and 600 species of fish and invertebrates.” 2.5 decades for recovery!

2) Suspension of #fishing would affect some 1.7 million people across the region who rely on #fisheries as a source of income, and toxic #gases would impact day-to-day life, including #farming in adjacent areas.

#YemenCantWait

In war-ravaged Yemen, the families of more than 60,000 fishermen would lose their source of sustenance and the crops of some 3.25 million farmers could be ruined, according to the UK’s ( @UKinYemen) ambassador to the country, @HMAMichaelAron.

3) A spill could lead to the closure of Hodeida’s ports for several months, thus likely leading to a shortage of fuel, commercial #goods & #humanitarian supplies, resulting in a significant increase in commodities prices & exacerbating problems of economic & #human #security.

A closure would also reduce the Houthis’ revenues, direct & indirect, which should be reason enough for them to cooperate. The problem is not that the UNSC lacks leverage with which to pressure the Houthis but rather that @UN officials in charge of the Yemen file have not used it

4) There would be a high risk of fire in the Red Sea, which would pose a threat to activities on this strategic maritime route, disrupting trade, increasing transportation costs, & delaying shipment of goods. Also affect coastal areas in Djibouti, Eritrea, KSA, Somalia & Sudan..

Why it wasn't resolved for over 5 years?

The Houthis have directly and indirectly turned down requests from the UN Office for Project Services ( @UNOPS), which can “deploy [an assessment team] within three weeks,” to carry out an inspection of the Safer

Why?

1) Have a wild card in negotiations vis-à-vis the government and the UNSC

2) Intimidate the international community and bordering states, including KSA

3) Gain time and leverage

The diplomat pointed out the Houthis “played the strings of negotiations to gain time and leverage”

How did the Houthis do that?

1) Made false promises to allow @UNOPS INSPECTION before UNSC briefings then pulled out multiple times

2) Demanded sending an inspection assessment and maintenance teams at a time

3) Demanded guarantees to sell oil stored on FSO Safer

@OSE_Yemen

What's the government position?

The crude oil stored on the tanker belongs to SEPOC (Safer), and any sums collected should be used to relieve the firm’s debt, as well as pay salaries to its staff and help with maintenance costs.

@UN position?

Use revenues to pay salaries.

Why R the Houthis bold?

Extortion in humanitarian aid sector & intimidation to bomb Hodeida ports worked. #Stockholm Deal was concluded and Houthis have weaponised aid to finance war.

The Houthis, therefore, see no reason why the same approach should not succeed again.

What did UNSC do before UNSC Resolution 2511? Nothing

The UNSC’s inaction helped to sustain Houthi dynamics. It's why the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs coordinator, @UNReliefChief, mentioned the Safer to the UNSC “on 10 occasions over the last 12 months”.

"Today the Houthis are holding the oil tanker hostage and the entire international community cannot convince [the rebels] just to allow the UN to fix the ship,” said Yemeni civil rights activist @BShtwtr.

So, what can be done to avert a major rupture or explosion of the Safer, in view of the environmental, economic, and humanitarian stakes involved beyond Yemem

1)UNSC should hold the group accountable for reckless behavior, condemn it in clear, detailed & firm language. It must use the leverage it has strategically, such as signaling to extend list of targeted sanctions against individuals obstructing inspection, repair & oil extraction

2) Permanent UNSC members — @USUN @StateDept, @UKUN_NewYork @FCOArabic @francediplo, @KremlinRussia, @RussiaUN and @MFA_China — must double down and exert additional diplomatic and political pressure on the Houthis, via direct and backdoor channels, to stop weaponizing the Safer.

Russia, more than any country in recent times, understands the disastrous implications of a potential spillage, having experienced one recently in Siberia, and has relatively good ties with all players in the country. Moscow, like London and Washington, can help in this regard.

3) Greater attention should help to resolve the #Safer crisis once & for all before any political settlement, contrary to what HE @HMAMichaelAron has advocated: a solution during peace talks. Since Stockholm consultations in 2018, there have been no peace talks. No reason to wait

I think that OSESGY [ @OSE_Yemen] should focus on [the Safer] as a top priority. Right now, [Griffiths] is not. This is happening on his and the international community’s watch and they are doing nothing about it,” @Ndawsari told MEI.

@ChineseEmbtoYEM @UKinYemen @EUINYEMEN @UN

Red Sea littoral states, including Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, Eriteria, Sudan, Somalia and Egypt, can step up their diplomatic efforts to push for a one-time solution that defuses this floating bomb.

@ksamissionun @djiboutidiplo @Eritrea_UN @SudanMissionUN @MfaEgypt @MofaSomalia

4) UN & major powers must ensure that #Safer’s oil is used, first & foremost, to relieve SEPOC’s debt & pay salaries of civil servants in #Hodeida for the first time in over six months. #Stockholm Agreement left Hodeida facing uncertainty-no peace, no war & no clear path forward.

Depending on an assessment of the situation after inspection and the Houthis’ behavior, and taking into account reimbursing billions seized by the Houthis from the @OSE_Yemen-monitored special account in Hodeida, the extraction of oil could be done in several ways

#YemenCantWait