Read on Twitter
Let's take a look at Florida - Everything is 7 day running average (RA)
First we compare new tests to positive %
Positive % is increasing along with testing
What this tells us is that infections are really going up, it's not just more testing that is picking up infections
First we compare new tests to positive %
Positive % is increasing along with testing
What this tells us is that infections are really going up, it's not just more testing that is picking up infections
So let's see what this means in terms of hospitalization percentage. Are the new cases sick enough to be hospitalized?
Hospitalization % is dropping while new cases are rising quickly so the new cases are mostly healthier people who don't need hospitalization
Hospitalization % is dropping while new cases are rising quickly so the new cases are mostly healthier people who don't need hospitalization
Finally, hospitalizations vs hosp mortality
We see a decrease in mortality that is similar to the increase in hospitalization
Exception is last 7 days - hosp increase sharply
Because deaths lag hospitalizations, we won't know if mortality rate will also drops for another week
We see a decrease in mortality that is similar to the increase in hospitalization
Exception is last 7 days - hosp increase sharply
Because deaths lag hospitalizations, we won't know if mortality rate will also drops for another week
Conclusions:
-Cases are rising (it's not the test)
-Milder cases are being diagnosed (lower hospitalization rate)
-Hospitalizations rising, but mortality decreasing indicating milder hospitalizations
-Not clear if mortality decrease will offset the rise of hosp from 1 week ago
-Cases are rising (it's not the test)
-Milder cases are being diagnosed (lower hospitalization rate)
-Hospitalizations rising, but mortality decreasing indicating milder hospitalizations
-Not clear if mortality decrease will offset the rise of hosp from 1 week ago
To be clear, this does not mean deaths won’t go up. I think they will, but not as much as new hospitalizations suggest
This post-reopening stage for the states that were not hit hard is new territory and we’ll have to see how it goes
Exponential growth not likely
This post-reopening stage for the states that were not hit hard is new territory and we’ll have to see how it goes
Exponential growth not likely
I get this question and was about to write “not even close”. Normally peak happens at 1/3 total deaths. If 600/million is burnout then Florida needs 200 deaths per million
I double check the data
and see Florida at 187 deaths/million
Maybe the peak is close!
Thx @imperialmog https://twitter.com/imperialmog/status/1281308504746270721
I double check the data
and see Florida at 187 deaths/millionMaybe the peak is close!
Thx @imperialmog https://twitter.com/imperialmog/status/1281308504746270721
