Read on Twitter
THREAD. Read this piece if you already haven't. And then consider where this, and the Russia bounty scandal, fits in with the bigger picture of Trump's responses -- *especially to activities conducted by the GRU*, Russia's military intelligence service. A refresher: https://twitter.com/rgoodlaw/status/1280849786892169222
(sorry got caught on emergency zoom call -- stand by)
2. I'm back. OK -- let's start with the GRU's hack of the DNC server in July 2016. The IC made this attribution in the summer of that year, and later, the Special Counsel actually INDICTED 12 GRU officers -- detailing the hack keystroke by keystroke -- in federal court
3. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: After spending months claiming that it could be "anybody," including a "400lb guy in his basement in New Jersey," he settled on the hack being conducted by...Ukraine. He stuck with that story through the impeachment https://apnews.com/319a1f4f835a4413b8b2914b977df7ab
3. Next, the IC, as well as the Senate Intelligence Committee, also assessed that the GRU had targeted the voter registration systems of all 50 states, and had succeeded in at least probing the vast majority of them https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/25/us/politics/russian-hacking-elections.html
4. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: Dude wanted to create a "cybersecurity partnership" WITH RUSSIA to address...election meddling. Fortunately this was early enough (2017) that the typical GOP enablers shot it down https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-cyber/trump-backtracks-on-cyber-unit-with-russia-after-harsh-criticism-idUSKBN19U0P4
5. In 2018, the GRU tried to poison Russian spy for Britain, Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia, using a banned nerve agent in Salisbury England. Britain, along with several of its allies, retaliated by expelling Russian diplomats (we expelled 60)
6. TRUMP'S RESPONSE: Trump was "furious" when he discovered that we had expelled so many Russian diplomats. Trump wanted to "match" the number expelled by other countries (4), and was afraid of being *portrayed* as "tough on Russia" by doing much more https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wanted-to-expel-fewer-russian-diplomats-2018-4
7. P.S. As an aside, when Russia expelled 775 diplomats from Russia in 2017 as a response for the sanctions and expulsions by Obama in response to election meddling, Trump THANKED HIM and told him the diplomats cost us too much money anyway https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2017/08/10/trump-says-he-is-very-thankful-to-putin-for-expelling-u-s-diplomats-from-russia/
8. Trump's acquiescence to Putin's activities, particularly through the GRU, has serious implications for our national security. First, every intel and nat sec expert has warned that Putin is a high risk-taker who will continue to push the envelope until stopped.
9. Second, we can look at what Putin is doing on other countries as a precursor for what he is planning and would like to do here. As @wiczipedia notes in her book "How to Lose the Information War," 2016 was a refined iteration of Putin's operations in eastern Europe since 2007
10. So what can we expect? Well, since there has been no consequences to its 2016 election interference, I think there is a high likelihood that the GRU will try to tamper with actual registrations or votes (a reprise of Ukraine), as I noted here https://twitter.com/AshaRangappa_/status/1275106533714669570?s=20
11. But it could be worse. In 2016, the GRU tried to stage a coup in Montenegro, by *assassinating* the Prime Minister and installing a pro-Russia government (they got caught). Violence is their MO, as @alexzfinley and @john_sipher have written https://www.justsecurity.org/69024/why-the-2020-election-will-be-a-mess-part-ii-beyond-russian-disinformation/
12. But, you say, surely Russia would NEVER try anything so bold and direct, like an assassination, in the U.S., right? Well, why not? The Skripal poisoning, and now the bounties -- which *are assassinations* -- on U.S. military personnel, is being met with ZERO consequences
13. This is why the lack of response from Trump -- and from his GOP supporters -- should be alarming to EVERYONE. It makes Russia bolder, and it gives them a green light to bring the tactics they are using elsewhere to the U.S. If we don't take action, we can expect the worst.
