1) Morgan Stanley’s always excellent quarterly CIO survey out this morning shows IT spend intentions are now -4.4% YoY, down from +3.9% last quarter.

First decline in 10 years, largest expected decline ever and largest negative revision ever. Worse than 2009.
2) Largest decline ever for software spending intentions, which are now -3.5% YoY.

Difficult to square with SAP’s positive report this morning as they are not gaining share of software spend.

Secular trends are all intact.
3) Semiconductor equities have become much more anticipatory over the last 20 years.

Perhaps the rest of tech is also more anticipatory now vs. 10 years ago.

COVID has accelerated existing secular trends and can reasonably argue that 2023 numbers are higher.

Time will tell.
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