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(1/9) New thread and diagrams on cases/deaths in Sweden. I will keep this updated weekly to alert us if cases suddenly transform into a leading indicator of deaths. So far, the Swedish experience strongly suggest that they do not (once there is community spread). #Covid19Sweden
(2/9) A casual observer might be worried that the case count in Sweden has more than doubled over the last 5 weeks. But rather than a surge in mortality, deaths over the same 5-week period are down by 80%.
(3/9) It seems as soon as the spread of the virus has peaked (with mortality being the only reliable metric of this), cases are no longer relevant to determine the spread or severity of the virus and will more likely be dependent on testing strategy.
(4/9) In the hardest hit region Stockholm the disconnect is even more pronounced with cases up 87% and deaths down 93% over the same 5 weeks. Lag? Observing the data, would you willingly make a bet that deaths would increase in tandem with cases next month?
(5/9) Same data, different perspective. Over the preceding 10 weeks there has been on average 1 death per 9 cases detected. As testing and cases have grown, this number exceeded 100 in week 26. This is remarkable even if there will be an upward revision of the death count.
(6/9) Back to Stockholm. Cases per deaths has gone from an average of 1 death per seven cases detected to one death per 261 cases. Perhaps the Covid19 no longer finds host that are both susceptible to the virus and likely to succumb to respiratory infections?
(7/9) I regularly see commentators using cases to incite fear (linked tweet uses a 7-day average cases/capita to scare his 50k Spanish followers of Covid19 in Sweden). The irresponsibility of making such claims without proper data and analysis is stunning. https://twitter.com/JorgeGalindo/status/1280221495793418241?s=20
(8/9) Months ago I naively thought that people quoting case counts would soon be a problem of the past. But the last few weeks has been a stark reminder that poor analysis dies hard. Please try to spread knowledge of the shifting dynamics of cases.
(9/9) If you find someone consciously misleading people using Sweden, don’t hesitate to confront them. It is no longer possible to dispute the data and therefore unacceptable to spread misinformation on this topic. In the words of @iamjohnoliver: How is this still a thing?
+1 week of data to be released later today. Will it provide any support for the “wait x weeks”-argument. Place your bets
@HaraldofW @tlennhamn @TTBikeFit @alexkx3 @FatEmperor @AlistairHaimes @FrankfurtZack @boriquagato
(submissions after 14:00 CEST void) https://twitter.com/EffectsFacts/status/1281160786715594752?s=20
@HaraldofW @tlennhamn @TTBikeFit @alexkx3 @FatEmperor @AlistairHaimes @FrankfurtZack @boriquagato
(submissions after 14:00 CEST void) https://twitter.com/EffectsFacts/status/1281160786715594752?s=20
