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I'm not a smart Republican strategist like @Timodc but I learned some stuff reporting The New New Deal, and I think his great piece about why Republican politicians are sticking with Trump despite...everything...leaves something out. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-reelection-chances-2020-house-senate-candidates-biden-1024862/ 1
The consultants Tim talked to all basically said Republican politicians have no choice but to stick with Trump because Republican voters love Trump, and they can't afford to lose any of their voters. Which is true. But it goes beyond that. 2
In a general election, Republican politicians wouldn't lose Republican voters by saying: I support Trump and hate the libs, but Bubba Wallace doesn't need to apologize for having a noose hung in his garage. As Tim says, it could help in the suburbs. But they don't say that. 3
In other words, Republican voters loving Trump explains why Republican politicians support Trump. But what explains their lockstep refusal to distance themselves even a tiny bit from the most unpopular things the Dear Leader says and does? 4
This is where I think about the lessons of the Obama era. When Democrats distanced themselves from Obama, they made Obama less popular. And that ended up killing congressional Democrats, especially the Democrats who were most eager to distance themselves from Obama. 5
Tim quotes one Republican consultant saying: "Well, it's as bad as it gets right now." That's not necessarily true! It can always get worse. Trump has a 40% approval rating despite 130K deaths and 15M lost jobs and a ton of scandals. It could be a lot worse. 6
With Trump at 40%, it will be hard for Republicans in swing districts to hold their seats. But if Trump goes to 30%, Rs in swing districts are toast and even some Rs in safe districts will be in trouble. It won't matter whether those Rs criticized Trump or not. It's just math. 7
Most voters don't follow politics closely. They take cues from elites. When Democratic pols slagged Obama, it drove down Obama's numbers. Republican pols refusing to slag Trump has propped up Trump's numbers. They know that if he becomes too toxic, they lose their jobs. 8
The conservative Democrats who tried hardest to distance themselves from Obama - Lincoln, Prior, Landrieu, the House Blue Dogs - all lost their seats. There's no escaping a wave. But if party elites stick together and defend their leader, they might reduce or avoid a wave. 9
It's fun to think about the complexities of politics, but voters mostly choose between change and the status quo. This is why Hillary and the Democrats were crazy to run against the economy in 2016. If you're in charge, you own it! Don't say it sucks! 10 https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/02/democratic-debate-clinton-sanders-213623
I get that Republican politicians don't want the president firing off nasty tweets at them. And they certainly do need Trump lovers to love them. But mostly they need to try to make sure there aren't even fewer Trump lovers by November. 11
One thing Republicans seem to understand in the Trump era that Democrats never did in the Obama era: They own what's happening. They're not going to tell voters that what's happening sucks, because if the voters believe them they're going to lose. END
