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Claim @Reuters: #Iran has reduced monthly payments to "each of the four top militia groups [in the #Hashd] in #Iraq to between $2 million and $3 million from $4.5 million to $5 million". Pre-sanctions/COVID that figure was supposedly $12-15m.
Sceptical https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-iraq-proxies-insight/coronavirus-and-sanctions-hit-irans-support-of-proxies-in-iraq-idUSKBN2432EY
Sceptical https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-iraq-proxies-insight/coronavirus-and-sanctions-hit-irans-support-of-proxies-in-iraq-idUSKBN2432EY
The sourcing in the @Reuters piece for the claim that #Iran has cut its subsidies to the #IRGC-controlled militias in #Iraq are "three Iraqi paramilitary group [i.e. #Hashd] commanders and a regional official familiar with Iran's activities in Iraq". Which seems fine. But ...
... We heard all of this before about #Hizballah being strapped for cash because of the sanctions on #Iran, with much more numerous and various sources, and it was nonsense. See: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/hezbollah-isnt-broke
There is far less reason to believe it about Iraq.
There is far less reason to believe it about Iraq.
In #Iraq, the militias controlled by #IRGC have access to official patronage from Iraq's oil and other revenue streams, the criminal #Hizballah networks are untouched, etc. It's not to say sanctions have had *no* effect, just that this thesis of operational effects is wrong.
As if by Providence to make the point that any financial pain is not affecting the operational aspects of #Iran's militias in #Iraq: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1279698980860055557
The incentives align between the U.S. administration, Iran, and the Western media to report that sanctions are doing serious damage to #Iran's militias and by extension the populations they draw from (reduced salaries). Most of the reporting is thus basically confirmation bias.
One could go on about this, but in brief: Iran gets to play is "Great Satan vs. the oppressed" card; Trump can claim the sanctions have brought Tehran to its knees so now is the moment for negotiations and his photo op; the press can claim Trump is mean. https://twitter.com/KyleWOrton/status/1279703943577251842
