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On 21 May the #Trump administration announced the U.S. #withdrawal from the #OpenSkiesTreaty. It will take effect in November. Tomorrow the 34 member states hold a virtual state conference to decide the future of the treaty. Can they save it? Bottom line: Yes, they can! 1/15
2/15 The US could theoretically still reverse its position and remain in the treaty. In May #Pompeo stated that “if #Russia returns to full compliance” the US may reconsider. BUT: This won’t happen! The US has already stopped implementing the treaty. No more US flights this year.
3/15 There are three major issues: First, what about the other member states? Will they remain or follow the U.S. by withdrawing? Second, how will Russia/Belarus react? Third, how does the U.S. withdrawal affect the treaty on a technical level? Let’s look at them one at a time.
4/15 Most member states have publicly expressed their support for the treaty. 12 members, including #Germany, #France and #Italy published a common statement that they will “continue to implement the treaty” https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/en/newsroom/news/joint-declaration-open-skies/2343892
5/15 The participation of RU/BY is essential, because 1/3 of all flights go over them. Critical states are those with a small number of flights and/or special security relations with the US: Baltic States, Poland, Georgia and the UK. Are they susceptible to US pressure?
6/15 The weakest link is arguably Georgia. It has conducted only one flight since 2014 and has a conflict with Russia. The Baltics states do not conduct many flights either. Poland supports the treaty but may find itself in a weak bargaining position. The same goes for the UK.
7/15 Russia values the treaty and wants to save it, but has two major concerns. One relates to the reaction of other member states: Will they withdraw too? The other is about possible data sharing with #Washington after the US withdrawal has been completed.
8/15 The treaty, of course, limits data access to member states. Yet, obligations within #NATO and intelligence cooperation may facilitate data sharing with the U.S. The problem: It is extremely difficult to prove the negative. Full technical verification is probably impossible.
9/15 One option to address this problem, however, would be to find creative methods of controlling for the proliferation of data. Right now, the rolls of photographic film are placed in sealed containers and handed over physically. This procedure changes with digital imagery.
10/15 Moscow is more concerned with political status than the loss of valuable #intelligence. U.S. national technical means can get most of the data anyway. Hence, the remaining parties should issue a statement that excludes data sharing with non-members: https://www.ridl.io/en/goodbye-open-skies/
11/15 After the U.S. withdrawal, Russia/Belarus lose the ability to fly over the U.S. These flights, about 6 per year on average, can be redistributed over Europe/Canada, however. On http://www.openskies.flights @ohneMax and I show that this is technical possible.
12/15 Another technical issue is aircraft capacity. Without US aircraft, European members can no longer conduct joint flights, but the US previsouly conducted flights with European aircraft too. In sum, they cancel each other out, as @ohnemax and I show on http://www.openskies.flights
13/15 Nonetheless, even though Germany’s new aircraft will be certified soon, aircraft range over Russia remains an issue. The bottleneck is this year: With the immediate end of all U.S. flights and the long flight stop due to Covid-19, Europeans need to find alternatives now.
14/15 Finally, there is the issue of technical expertise. The U.S. chairs one of the three informal working groups – the sensor group, which is essential (German & Russia chair the other two). Washington provided much needed knowledge therein. Not easy to find a replacement.
15/15 Overall, the conference tomorrow will bring clarity about whether the #openskiestreaty survives 2020 but for a long-term decision we will need to wait until the review conference and the quota distribution in October. Here everyone needs to put the cards on the table.
