Latest panelbase poll for the ST.

Independence: Yes 54%, No 46%

List vote and seats
SNP: 50% (+8) 74 (+11)
Tories: 18% (-5) 24 (-7)
Labour: 15% (-4) 17 (-7)
Greens: 8% (+1) 9 (+3)
Lib Dems: 6% (+1) 5 (nc)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-polling-surge-tilts-balance-on-independence-kvbhpj7cf

Fair to say a result like that would lead to a lot of chat about a mandate for a second referendum. An absolute majority is definitely worse for policy-making on other things, though.

Also this result would see the 20-year decline of Scottish Labour back to its normal pace (6 or 7 MSPs down every single time apart from 2016, which was twice that). Only so long it can go on, mind.

I’m convinced Labour’s problem isn’t leadership, although in general it’s hard to bring in new talent when you’re consistently declining. I think it’s more about this chart, which I imagine more than one Labour strategist has drawn on a napkin.

It looks so plausible and of course Scottish politics still divides in those two dominant ways. But the four squares on the grid are equal sizes, and that’s wrong; the electorate don’t divide that evenly. That Left/No box is actually much smaller, just as the Right/Yes box is.

The reason is that independence will tend to redistribute power, and has the capacity to redistribute wealth. So there’s a line of natural fit that runs through it. So the Labour position isn’t a great place to be: same reason why there isn’t a Yes party to the right of the Nats.

Of course, switching to supporting independence isn’t a magic solution for Labour. They’d be squeezing in between the Nats and the Greens, who gather up almost all Yes-minded voters already. Being neutral on it would probably lose yet more to the Tories. Tricky.

If I were constructively advising Labour (lol they hate it when I do this) I’d say exploit the SNP’s timidity with the powers Holyrood already has. Set out bold plans within devo. Make it look like independence isn’t the radical option. And pivot to that when asked about indy.

It’s hard not to see the overall polling change as being driven by attitudes to Westminster, with its incompetence and malice dragging down those parties most closely associated with it. No wonder an increasingly indy-minded electorate wants more Nats and more Greens.