good morning
happy Sunday! Today on #Insiders are ABC politics editor Andrew Probyn, former Liberal Party (Peter Costello) media advisor Niki Savva and Peter Hartcher, international editor at ninefax (chaired by Peter Costello). This thread is not fact checked.

opening gambit: “Labor has scraped home for a win”. It is 100 years since a government won a by-election from an opposition, Speers repeats for the umpteenth time, as does the Liberal candidate. What a coincidence! #Insiders
after Speers presents the preferred Liberal Party framing - “Labor is relying on the preferences” in a marginal seat in a preferential voting system - like all marginal seats in our system - there is footage of the two frontrunners and an update from Antony Green #Insiders
it is 9:06am and twice already Speers has mentioned the popularity of the prime minister. He turns to the panel, starting with Hartcher, who tells Speers what Labor will say about the popularity of the prime minister. #Insiders
next up is Niki Savva. She is asked if the result is “equivocal and better for one side or the other”? lmao what? When Labor wins it is not better for Labor? Wtf is he saying? Savva gives this question the answer it deserves. A win is a win is a win, she says. #Insiders
voters electing Labor are withholding judgement, Savva says, as tho the seat was not on a miniscule margin already. She also reiterates the gallery fantasy about how Morrison is handling an ongoing pandemic, which they call “has handled” like it is over. #Insiders
Probyn thankfully concedes all this chatter is [vested] speculation. “We are reading the entrails here” he says. #Insiders
heh footage of [Nationals NSW deputy premier] Barilaro saying he voted for [retired ALP MP] Mike Kelly at the 2019 election (there was no Nat candidate). He votes for the man, he says. This is linked to a 30% Nat preference rate going to Labor #Insiders
Speers still super keen to focus on Labor leadership. Hartcher tries to broaden the discussion to the soon-to-be abolished covid income support measures, which he calls jobseeker (he means the corona supplement) and jobkeeper. Speers says we will get to that later #Insiders
footage of Albanese - on the people left behind theme - to segue to the interview, with member for Hunter Joel Fitzgibbon. Is Albanese guaranteed to lead Labor to the next election? Does Speers have any other ideas than manufacturing Labor leadership stories? #Insiders
Fitzgibbon points to the vast and favourable coverage that media gave Morrison and the Liberals by-election campaign. He praises McBain, saying she was one of the best he has campaigned alongside #Insiders
moving on to the headline generator question, which is emissions targets. Speers asks Fitzgibbon if Labor agree with the government. If they have no target for 2030? What about 2035? Nothing? He forgot to ask if reducing emissions would cost money #Insiders
god the submarine talk bores me to tears. Old enough to remember when Turnbull made awarding a submarine tender the centrepiece of his 2016 campaign. And pretended that defence procurement was “innovation”. #Insiders
onto China. Fitzgibbon agrees with the safe haven for people from Hong Kong offer. He reminds us that it was Bob Hawke who offered asylum after the Tiananmen Square massacre.
Even if it offends China, which it will? asks Speers.
Yes.
#Insiders
Even if it offends China, which it will? asks Speers.
Yes.
#Insiders
interview over, Victorian outbreak and #BriggsReport is next. He says the Victorian government appears unwilling to talk about the hotel clusters while a judicial review is underway #Insiders
asked about the Fitzgibbon reply on Albanese - back to Speers obsession with opposition leadership, in other words - Savva repeats that a win is a win is a win. Like Hartcher, she segues away from Speers focus on Labor Labor Labor and onto income support instead #Insiders
Savva brings the usual heartless tory tropes to income support however. She thinks “people need a hand up rather than relying on government handouts”, failing to comprehend that it is government which crushes people on centrelink #Insiders
corona outbreak in Victoria: Probyn compares the public housing tower hard lockdown to Wuhan without the welding. Hartcher wholly blames the Andrews government, which seems incredibly narrow minded from where I sit. #Insiders
what has happened in Victoria is bad all round, says Savva. Bad economically, politically, public health wise. She switches to the place of Andrews in national cabinet, a point the males wish they had made, so they interrupt and speak over her and don’t let her finish #Insiders
more empty chatter about politicians politicking and then a clip of Boris Johnson stumbling over the words contact tracing. Apparently that was light relief. Then a clip of the Morrison speech invoking the 1930s. Andrew thinks David went to him but no, to Peter. #Insiders
after Peter drones solemnly about the near miss in the 1930s where we almost lost human freedom - god the pomposity - whose freedom? White males destroy more freedom for more of humanity than anyone - we go to Andrew to also tell us what the prime minister really meant #Insiders
back to safe haven for Hong Kong protestors. The panel as one are behind what appears to me to be an incredibly reckless Morison indulgence, being belligerent on China. Why would anyone support picking fights with China and then leveraging Hong Kong citizens as cover? #Insiders
mr international is running through Turnbull-Morrison governments history of Aust-China relations, which he calls a “concerted and multipronged” campaign by China against Australia. #Insiders
the Hartcher analysis strikes me as a white move to innocence but look unlike Greg Sheridan I don’t pretend to understand our relations with China #Insiders
very quickly, Probyn is asked about the Cormann exit. His star faded when he turned on Turnbull, says Probyn, meaning when he backed the lawless walloper who lies I guess. If anyone mentioned Dutton I missed it. #Insiders
#TalkingPictures was with total legend Alex Ellinghausen but I missed most of the toons this week. A good one of Morrison riding a giant missile towering over people cowering in tents. #Insiders
#FinalObservations 1 is Speers on the still possible pending prosecution of ABC journos for investigating the ADF alleged war crimes in Afghanistan.
#FinalObservations 2 is Hartcher saying the job of democracy is quote - sorry I missed the source - not the best way to elect good governments but the best way to bloodlessly remove bad ones #Insiders
#FinalObservations 3 was a two-parter from Savva, the second part an absolute doozy: does Morrison have the guts to remove Linda Reynolds from defence and give it to Peter Dutton, she asked. #Insiders
[also I usually try to reply and thank everybody on Sunday arvo but we are just heading out the door to visit family so many thanks in advance]