This Economic Experiment

Canada has embarked on a monumental economic experiment

In the face of a once in a century, worldwide catastrophe our government closed the economy down to protect citizens from a plague

Correctly, the government introduced an unprecedented

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economic support plan: CERB, mortgage deferral, interest free loans to small business, a payroll support plan

8 Million people on CERB, absolutely massive support

To the point where the stock market has almost recovered and in some cities RE prices have actually GONE UP

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Was it a mistake? No, it wasn't because if a government shuts an economy down it has a requirement to manage that problem

Could we argue there was poor execution of specifics? We could but it would be dumb because battlefield surgery doesn't work that way

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The health issues seem to be resolving albeit with some hazards on the horizon (Hello Florida)

What do we do now?

Likely a half a Trillion Federal deficit this year

And some sectors of the economy likely not to recover for years

Very troubling, worrying

And yet....

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Does it feel like an economic disaster for most Canadians?

Clearly not for some; there are properties in Toronto with 36 bids, record prices

But its absolutely a disaster for some: hospitality workers, energy workers, I know event planners that have just closed forever

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What happens when all these support measures cease or shrink enormously?

How will schools and daycares resolve just to give people a chance to work normally?

Something is sure as hell going to happen but what?

I am certain it's not going look like Spring / Summer 2020

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This is the great experiment, how to withdraw from a massively supported economy?

What do citizens expect? What will they accept? How will they react? Will people insist the support continue? But how could it?

The next chapter begins to unfold after September