Read on Twitter
Why Eye Test < Stats < Advanced States: A Slightly Fictionalized Story
At first, teams played w/o keeping score.
To determine which team had won (& was better), they had the EYE TEST: watching, judging, & trying to remember.
But the EYE TEST (ET) didn't work well enough.
At first, teams played w/o keeping score.
To determine which team had won (& was better), they had the EYE TEST: watching, judging, & trying to remember.
But the EYE TEST (ET) didn't work well enough.
@WestFanClubCEO
@HunidLikeWilt
@LeaguePasshole
@thenicktripoli
@datafox21
@MikanFanClubCEO
@GameExamined
@LeShrek_
@BangoBucksFan
@CasualBullsFan
@BobPettitFanCEO
@SucksMvp
@GreekGodofStats
@HunidLikeWilt
@LeaguePasshole
@thenicktripoli
@datafox21
@MikanFanClubCEO
@GameExamined
@LeShrek_
@BangoBucksFan
@CasualBullsFan
@BobPettitFanCEO
@SucksMvp
@GreekGodofStats
ET didn't conclusively answer which team had won/was better bc everyone had their own ET, which could be inaccurate, biased, or misremembered.
So someone said, let's KEEP TRACK of scores: the first STAT (team points).
They decided to keep track of wins: the stat of team wins.
So someone said, let's KEEP TRACK of scores: the first STAT (team points).
They decided to keep track of wins: the stat of team wins.
To summarize to this point:
STATISTICS (tracking and recording every play & possession) WERE INVENTED BECAUSE THE EYE TEST WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH.
Stats are the Eye Test if it was tracked and recorded meticulously, completely, and unbiasedly.
STATISTICS (tracking and recording every play & possession) WERE INVENTED BECAUSE THE EYE TEST WASN'T GOOD ENOUGH.
Stats are the Eye Test if it was tracked and recorded meticulously, completely, and unbiasedly.
But how to judge INDIVIDUAL PLAYERS against each other?
Some people (like Bill Russell's fans today) said: "The players on the best team are the best individual players."
Today, casual fans still focus on team success to judge individual quality (RINGZ!).
Some people (like Bill Russell's fans today) said: "The players on the best team are the best individual players."
Today, casual fans still focus on team success to judge individual quality (RINGZ!).
But that answer didn't satisfy other people, who said: Let's keep track of INDIVIDUAL player's POINTS: A new stat.
It's important to note that the people who wanted STATS to learn which player was better were NOT math nerds and geeks. They were coaches, scouts, & journalists.
It's important to note that the people who wanted STATS to learn which player was better were NOT math nerds and geeks. They were coaches, scouts, & journalists.
In addition to peak scoring, BBall experts thought a player's typical average gave more info. So they invented P/G.
You might think of P/G as the first advanced stat bc it's not just a total. Instead, it divided a stat by another. (But P/G is NOT now viewed as "Advanced Stat.")
You might think of P/G as the first advanced stat bc it's not just a total. Instead, it divided a stat by another. (But P/G is NOT now viewed as "Advanced Stat.")
Over time, people noticed that some players used a lot of shots to score; others used fewer. To give more information than just P & P/G, they invented FG%.
Like P/G, FG% was sort of an "advanced stat" because it compared one stat (FGM) to another (FGA) to give more information.
Like P/G, FG% was sort of an "advanced stat" because it compared one stat (FGM) to another (FGA) to give more information.
Eventually, BBall experts noticed that scoring points and shooting high FG%/FT% were NOT the only determinants of winning.
Collecting missed shots seemed important, so they tracked & recorded the REBOUNDING stat.
Passing for scores seemed important, so they recorded ASSISTS.
Collecting missed shots seemed important, so they tracked & recorded the REBOUNDING stat.
Passing for scores seemed important, so they recorded ASSISTS.
For many years, we had these stats of P/G, FG%, FT%, R/G, and A/G.
But BBall experts realized that DEFENSE was important, too. In 1974, the NBA started tracking and recording the stats of blocks and steals.
But BBall experts realized that DEFENSE was important, too. In 1974, the NBA started tracking and recording the stats of blocks and steals.
After 1974, there were lots of stats. The high # of stats could be confusing, so CASUAL FANS focused on points and P/G to judge the best players.
EVEN TODAY, CASUAL FANS FOCUS ON POINTS AND P/G.
Casuals also still focus on team success (RINGZ!) to judge individual players.
EVEN TODAY, CASUAL FANS FOCUS ON POINTS AND P/G.
Casuals also still focus on team success (RINGZ!) to judge individual players.
Important:
ADVANCED STATS were invented because conventional stats (P/G, R/G, etc.) couldn't answer some important questions.
ADVANCED STATS were invented because conventional stats (P/G, R/G, etc.) couldn't answer some important questions.
1) With all of these conventional stats, how do we get a single OVERALL evaluation?
Advanced stats like TS% combine several stats (2FGA/M, 3FGA/M & FTA/M) into one overall shooting % stat.
Advanced stats like PER go further and combined EVERY conventional stat into one stat.
Advanced stats like TS% combine several stats (2FGA/M, 3FGA/M & FTA/M) into one overall shooting % stat.
Advanced stats like PER go further and combined EVERY conventional stat into one stat.
2) Which stats are correlated to winning?
Advanced stats found that point differential was correlated with winning.
Adv stats like WS and BPM connect players' individual stats to point differential/winning.
Adv stats like WS connect team stats to individual player's stats.
Advanced stats found that point differential was correlated with winning.
Adv stats like WS and BPM connect players' individual stats to point differential/winning.
Adv stats like WS connect team stats to individual player's stats.
To summarize:
STATISTICS (tracking and recording every play & possession) were invented because EYE TEST failed.
ADVANCED STATS were invented because CONVENTIONAL STATS: 1) Didn't give a single, overall player evaluation; 2) Didn't give correlations to winning & to team stats
STATISTICS (tracking and recording every play & possession) were invented because EYE TEST failed.
ADVANCED STATS were invented because CONVENTIONAL STATS: 1) Didn't give a single, overall player evaluation; 2) Didn't give correlations to winning & to team stats
More-recent Advanced Stats have moved beyond manipulating box-score stats. The current phase includes tracking, recording, and calculating every players' movement in every minute of every game.
