It’s very difficult if not impossible to see the UK taking recent positions if it was still in the EU. I saw that with Ukraine. Hague and then Hammond wanted a certain position and then had to water it down (and Germany was infinitely more hawkish on Russia than now on China)

It’s just the way it works. You are part of the Foreign Affairs Council, you can’t go rogue. Or rather, you can but in your more or less covert foreign policy, not public diplomacy. There are common statements, if you then say the opposite in your own statements, it’s a crisis

This, by the way, is something Chinese authorities worried about. I heard a few times in Beijing that they thought Brexit could mean they would lose the UK because an unanchored UK could develop a policy more aligned with the US. They were not wrong, it turns out

Obviously HK then took over the relationship in ways that were not fully predictable two years ago. Would the UK water down its HK position if it were still in the EU? Perhaps not, but there would be a lot of pressure to keep the UK within the broader EU paradigm on China

The most likely outcome would be to try to contain fallout to HK issue and that could mean the same rhetoric from London but arguably not the exact same policy (on HK visas for example and certainly not on other elements of the UK’s developing China policy).

Finally, would UK have been able to influence EU position? I don’t think so. It was able to (to some extent) on Ukraine because interests were aligned and Putin helped. But on China it’s a different story. Majority of EU27 and UK have different views and interests on China

In one sentence: since the EU represents the status quo and the UK the radical evolution, a common EU position with the UK still a member would obviously make it more difficult for the UK to change and relatively easy for the EU to maintain the status quo

It’s not even clear that having the UK in would be good for the EU on this issue. The EU is already dramatically divided on China. Italy or Spain do not in any way see eye to eye with Sweden or Netherlands. But currently might still be possible to make them agree

You can still try to bring them together on a tougher EU on economic competition or a level playing field. With the UK part of the discussion and pushing for an increasingly ideological approach, the cacophony would be complete. China would disappear from Council debates

So perhaps China lost twice with Brexit: saw the UK move across the Atlantic on China and still has to deal with a minimally unified EU position rather than complete disaggregation and division