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I read Chinese actions in #Ladakh as a significant trespass across the #LAC aimed at gaining tactical advantage and strategic depth in certain vantage points along the LAC as for 1/n
e.g Depsang Plain (a wide unimpeded plateau) that offers access to the #AksaiChin as also in reverse to areas on our side, #Galwan Valley (commanding heights over the Darbuk- #Shyok- #DBO Road), #Pangong Tso 2/n
But not a fresh territorial dispute over new areas of the UT of Ladakh (where they are already in possession of the Aksai Chin and areas south and east of Kongka La plus the Shaksgam Valley illegally ceded by Pakistan) 3/n
China is building advantage for itself in order to hinder access for India to areas under its (Chinese) control in the Aksai Chin and southern #Ladakh in the event of our trying to regain these areas lost to China in the 1950s and 1960s. A Chinese Maginot Line? 4/n
Think China planning to do this(secure more ‘defensive’ depth along LAC) for some years now (from 2010 at least).J&K (Reorganisation),statements at political level regarding regaining control of areas in PoK and Aksai Chin & alignment of Shyok-DBO Rd may have provided trigger 5/n
Now that Chinese are consolidating themselves in these pockets they r unlikely to withdraw unless both sides arrive at agreement to demilitarise/mutually disengage.This will require higher political direction. 6/n
In that case what happens to current alignment of Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road? Can India and China create such a zone of disengagement building on the peace and tranquility protocols/CBMs of 1993,1996,2005,2012 and 2013? Or is the future a bleak one presaging recurrent instability?7/n
Possibility of China opening other fronts in event of deterioration in W. Sector cannot be ruled out.And in Arunachal Pradesh,as we have to the area in Aksai Chin, they claim many sq km of our territory &eye Tawang. This is a territorial ‘claim’. 8/n
Chinese PLA have always regretted their withdrawal from areas south of the McMahon Line after 1962 conflict. They regard this territory as sector of ‘largest dispute’. 9/n
In short, we should use diplomatic means to facilitate an agreement between the two militaries to achieve disengagement in areas where Ladakh LAC is subject to overlapping interpretations. The current problem in Ladakh is an LAC problem not a territorial claims issue. 10/n
History of 1962 has to be carefully read especially language/pattern of Chinese threat and action. China should think equally carefully. It should not sacrifice gains made in bilateral relationship with a power like India over last few decades.Sober choices hv to be made. 11/n
This is a challenge as Nehru said long ago that runs across the spine of Asia as two giant countries are involved. Repercussions all around for the Indo-Pacific. (Ends)
