Still so much misunderstanding of the 50% target and what it measures https://twitter.com/jim_dickinson/status/1279310226232049665
First, the target has not been achieved. The record HE participation of any cohort of young people to date is 43%.

Current projections are that it will be hit in 2030 *if* the HE participation rates of 2017/18 are sustained for the next 10 years

https://www.hepi.ac.uk/2019/10/09/its-not-yet-true-that-half-of-young-people-go-to-university/
The Statistics Authority have been taking the DfE to task about the widespread misinterpretation of HEIPR in the media (and even among DfE policymakers), with two letters in the last 8 months

https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/ed-humpherson-to-neil-mcivor-dfe-regarding-the-higher-education-initial-participation-rate-heipr/
This led to DfE amending the statistical release to clarify: “HEIPR is an estimate of the likelihood of a young person participating in HE by age 30 based on current participation rates. It is not a measure of participation by particular entry cohorts”

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/843542/Publication_HEIPR1718.pdf
Second, despite what is often implied, young people refers to “people aged 30”.

40% of school/college leavers go on to take a course at Level 4 or above at a university or FE College at age 17, 18 or 19. Too many? It’s very similar to the proportion doing A-levels...
Third, the 50% target includes young people doing higher technical qualifications at Level 4/5 in FE colleges.

It is only inconsistent with “improving access to high-quality practical and vocational courses at college” if these will be at Level 3 (A-level equivalent) or below
If 40 per cent of 19-year-olds doing degrees, higher apprenticeships or higher technical qualifications in universities and FE Colleges - and an aspiration for half of people to do so by the age of 30 - is too high, what’s the right proportion?
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