Ok, let’s nail my colours to the mast. Here’s my 10 predictions for the div increase announcement on 9th July + what this does to the market in the following two weeks.

Will retweet this on July 23rd + will mark myself out of 10. Happy to accept people’s marks now in advance

The increase:

1. Bigger div increase than last year (which was 57%)

2. I think it will be 75-100% div increase.

3. Specially more media places, bronze and silver days increase more than gold, and double IPDs)

Where does money flow:

4. Money goes into proven div winners. The following get 5-10% within 48 hours: Messi, Neymar, Bruno, Sancho.

5. Next will be whichever good player wins PB in the following days. This player will get a 10-15% rise within an hour.

6. After that, over the 2 weeks we’ll see it shift into two distinct areas: The first is £3-5 players who have won divs in the past.

7. The second is elite youth who haven’t won divs yet. Some will complain that there rise doesn’t make sense, but logically of course it will.

8. Within these two weeks, some players will have increased by 20%. The one who rises the most is a player probably none of us would have predicted as our number 1 pick.

What does this mean for spreads?

9. Those that are already small will get smaller (1-2p for a bit) Even on expensive players.

10. Spreads that are big will get bigger, as people scramble for top players + the season finishing anyway. The timeline won’t be happy with this.