$TSLAQ @rschmied had this idea originally to verify the accruals for Musk’s stock option plan. I just wanted to see if it was another source of accrual manipulation. Unless I my understanding of the plan is dead wrong, they are short $461m in the plans’ accruals (1/8)

This is just a side note to complain about the utter stupidity of their intention to move disclosures around quarter to quarter. It could due be their intensive turnover. Still it’s a joke. Attached listing of the footnote changes by quarter. K’s are not even included (2/8)

This is a spread of the Comp Plan accruals by quarter since inception. Except for 12/31/19, it is very consistent. Roughly $60m per Q. According to the notes, they have a known unrecognized accrual as well (peach row.) (3/8)

There is a second unrecognized accrual for the awards that are not probable (green row.) See the difference between 9/30/19 & 12/31/19? The accrual was becoming realistic based on the market cap (blue row.) (4/8)

While we are on market cap, look how just mad stupid crazy idiotic the market cap exploded in Q4 2019, Q1 2020, and Q2 2020. A graph simply does not provide the justice that a raw number gives. Valuation is never a good reason to short, but WTF? (5/8)

Next is an attached the cumulative accruals for the first tranche plus the unrecognized accrual. See the problem? By their own notes, they need $461m expense to meet their own estimates. Much less consider the increase in stock price (6/8)

Also, stock compensation is a non-cash expense with a cumulative line item. It’s not a perfect estimate because it includes cash payments. Still, after this award, Musk’s award will be 90% of accruals since 2018. ISS has a point. (7/8)

Final note, unless there is a major mistake in my calculations, on top of whatever they are doing to manipulate everything in the income statement, they need to add another $461m to get a profit this quarter. (8/8)