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This week’s NHS/PHE Test & Trace data.
(long) thread
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-18-june-to-24-june-2020
(long) thread
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-18-june-to-24-june-2020
First, headline results.
Have made a little flow-chart. Hope it helps.
Have made a little flow-chart. Hope it helps.
Some definitions
Pillar 1 = testing in PHE labs/NHS hospitals for those with clinical need and in high risk settings like care homes & hospitals
Pillar 2 = testing for the general public like home kits, drive-through etc.
Pillar 1 = testing in PHE labs/NHS hospitals for those with clinical need and in high risk settings like care homes & hospitals
Pillar 2 = testing for the general public like home kits, drive-through etc.
Complex case = outbreaks/cases in high risk settings like care homes & hospitals. Cases & contacts managed by ‘tier 1’ - local/regional PHE health protection teams, bringing in local authority colleagues where necessary.
Non-complex cases = everything else, cases managed by tier 2 call handlers, contacts managed by tier 3 (this is where most of gov recruitment has been focused)
Note: all figures likely to be slightly revised in future weeks as delayed data are added.
Note: all figures likely to be slightly revised in future weeks as delayed data are added.
Week 4.
From 18-25th June, 5,182 people tested positive.
Downward trend continues: from 6,245 wk 3; 6,685 in wk 2; 8,790 in wk 1
From 18-25th June, 5,182 people tested positive.
Downward trend continues: from 6,245 wk 3; 6,685 in wk 2; 8,790 in wk 1
1,322 were pillar 1 (1.1% of tests done), and 3,863 were pillar 2 (2.2% of tests done).
This doesn’t mean there’s more COVID in the community; hospitals and care homes are doing lots of mass testing whereas members of public are only testing if symptomatic.
This doesn’t mean there’s more COVID in the community; hospitals and care homes are doing lots of mass testing whereas members of public are only testing if symptomatic.
This compares to the @ONS survey suggesting 0.04% of people in the community have COVID – or around 25,000 (confidence intervals 13,000 to 46,000) new community cases a week between 14th and 27th June.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2020
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/2july2020
Therefore, T&T not capturing anywhere b/w 9,000 and 42,000 community cases per week.
A few of these may end up being tested in pillar 1, but the rest are going to be incomplete tests, asymptomatic people, or people not linking symptoms to COVID/getting tested.
A few of these may end up being tested in pillar 1, but the rest are going to be incomplete tests, asymptomatic people, or people not linking symptoms to COVID/getting tested.
Test turnaround time in pillar 2 is improving, as you’d expect. But note the variation between different testing methods – esp fall in incomplete home test kits
Of the 5,182 positive, 6,183 were transferred to T&T.
More than total cases because reportedly includes some cases from wk 2. Plus likely to also include some duplicates put through to the contact tracing system (DHSC can’t say how many).
More than total cases because reportedly includes some cases from wk 2. Plus likely to also include some duplicates put through to the contact tracing system (DHSC can’t say how many).
Of those cases transferred to T&T, 4,639 were reached and asked about contacts - that's 75%, up from 72% the week before.
73% in wk 1; 76% in wk2; 72% in wk 3 .
73% in wk 1; 76% in wk2; 72% in wk 3 .
Of those reached – 410 cases were complex
1,465 in wk 1 -> 871 in wk 2 -> 542 in wk 3 (note big revision upward from 479 originally reported) -> 410 in wk 4
That's 25% of cases in wk 1, 19% in wk 2, 11% in wk 3, 9% in wk 4.
1,465 in wk 1 -> 871 in wk 2 -> 542 in wk 3 (note big revision upward from 479 originally reported) -> 410 in wk 4
That's 25% of cases in wk 1, 19% in wk 2, 11% in wk 3, 9% in wk 4.
Number of on-complex cases that are reached is staying around the same
4,436 in wk 1 -> 3,623 in wk 2 -> 4,463 in wk 3 -> 4,229 in wk 4
4,436 in wk 1 -> 3,623 in wk 2 -> 4,463 in wk 3 -> 4,229 in wk 4
Of those 4,639 cases who were reached, 3,497 (75%) gave details of one or more contact.
This is up from 73% last week, and up from 60% in wk1 and 64% in wk2.
This is up from 73% last week, and up from 60% in wk1 and 64% in wk2.
And among those non-complex cases, the percentage of cases reached within 24hrs is 65% and getting worse week on week (69% the week before).
In terms contacts reached, the report now breaks this down by complex and non-complex cases. I take this as a small victory.
So, T&T report that 23,028 contacts were identified, and 16,804 were reached.
That’s 73%, down from 91% in the first two weeks, and 82% in week 3. The drop is driven by the fall in complex cases mentioned above and explained in next few tweets.
That’s 73%, down from 91% in the first two weeks, and 82% in week 3. The drop is driven by the fall in complex cases mentioned above and explained in next few tweets.
Overall contacts per case is falling and is now 5.0 (compared with 8.9 in wk 1; 10.3 in wk 2; 6.3 in wk3).
If complex – 10,866 contacts were identified, of which 96% were reached and asked to isolate. This is nearly half the number of contacts identified the week before.
Contacts per complex case is 26.5. This compares to 37.9 in wk 3, 43.1 in wk 2, and 28.9 in wk 1.
Contacts per complex case is 26.5. This compares to 37.9 in wk 3, 43.1 in wk 2, and 28.9 in wk 1.
The changes b/w wks 1 & 2 are prob to be due to data recording methods
Fall from wk 3 to 4 may be a bit due to data, but also due to different settings. Eg, hosp cases generally have fewer contacts than care homes cause everyone’s in PPE & cases isolated etc.
Fall from wk 3 to 4 may be a bit due to data, but also due to different settings. Eg, hosp cases generally have fewer contacts than care homes cause everyone’s in PPE & cases isolated etc.
If non-complex – 12,122 contacts were identified, and 6,348 reached. This is 52% of possible contacts (was 49% last week). Of the 48% not reached, about half don’t pick up the phone/refuse, the other half never have contact details in the first place.
It’s not great that the proportion of contacts either not responding to calls or without contact details isn’t improving. Ideally this would tick up as awareness of T&T grows.
Total contacts identified per non-complex case is still growing steadily, now 2.9 compared with 2.5 in wk 3.
And now the contacts reached per case has also crept up to 1.5 (from 1.3 in the previous two weeks).
These are good things.
And now the contacts reached per case has also crept up to 1.5 (from 1.3 in the previous two weeks).
These are good things.
Finally on the data, the percentage of contacts given advice who were reached within 24hrs has remained relatively high at more than 80%.
Overall,
-fewer cases going to T&T wk on wk (and far fewer than ONS estimated number of community cases)
-continuing decline in complex cases
-75% of cases reached slightly better than wk 3
-75% of these gave details of a contact. Again, slightly better than wk 3.
-fewer cases going to T&T wk on wk (and far fewer than ONS estimated number of community cases)
-continuing decline in complex cases
-75% of cases reached slightly better than wk 3
-75% of these gave details of a contact. Again, slightly better than wk 3.
-only 73% of contacts reached – much worse than wk 3.
-this is because fewer complex cases where reaching contacts is much easier.
-contacts per complex case falling, may be due to data recording or different settings.
-contacts per non-complex case rising v slightly.
-this is because fewer complex cases where reaching contacts is much easier.
-contacts per complex case falling, may be due to data recording or different settings.
-contacts per non-complex case rising v slightly.
Will be v interesting to see how exceedance reports (like Leicester) gets reflected in T&T data over coming weeks.
And finally the report & data tables are MUCH better this week. Thank you @DHSCgovuk. More tables, better breakdown between complex and non-complex cases/contacts.
In future, would be useful to include cases per contact, and also breakdown on complex cases by setting if possible.
In future, would be useful to include cases per contact, and also breakdown on complex cases by setting if possible.
As ever, please stay safe, get a test if you have symptoms, isolate if you’re asked to, and stay 2m apart.
Even if you are having a pint that somebody else poured for you.
Even if you are having a pint that somebody else poured for you.
This week's look through T&T
@felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @TimHarford @hughalderwick @profchrisham @HPIAndyCowper @HSJEditor @ShaunLintern @petermbenglish @KateAlvanley
Do say if you’d rather not be tagged
@felly500 @trishgreenhalgh @deb_cohen @martinmckee @carolecadwalla @mgtmccartney @ADPHUK @Jeanelleuk @TimHarford @hughalderwick @profchrisham @HPIAndyCowper @HSJEditor @ShaunLintern @petermbenglish @KateAlvanley
Do say if you’d rather not be tagged
