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#Colts have had some of the biggest changes this offseason, altering the fantasy landscape for their passing attack in 2020 and dynasty
Let's dig in to explore this offense for 2020 and what we can expect (thread)
Let's dig in to explore this offense for 2020 and what we can expect (thread)
Additions:
Philip Rivers
Michael Pittman Jr.
Trey Burton
Departures:
Eric Ebron
Devin Funchess
Dontrelle Inman
Chester Rogers
This has left an unproven receiving corp to support Rivers, w a group projected starters from Hilton, Pittman, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell
Philip Rivers
Michael Pittman Jr.
Trey Burton
Departures:
Eric Ebron
Devin Funchess
Dontrelle Inman
Chester Rogers
This has left an unproven receiving corp to support Rivers, w a group projected starters from Hilton, Pittman, Zach Pascal, and Parris Campbell
Rivers supposedly "fell off" w his play in 2019, but what do stats show?
7.8 Y/A is equal to his career avg
7.03 NY/A in 2019 vs 7.04 career avg
3.4% INT rate in 2019 vs 2.6% career avg
5.4% sck rate in 2019 vs 5.5% career avg
3.9% TD% in 2019 vs 5.2% career avg
7.8 Y/A is equal to his career avg
7.03 NY/A in 2019 vs 7.04 career avg
3.4% INT rate in 2019 vs 2.6% career avg
5.4% sck rate in 2019 vs 5.5% career avg
3.9% TD% in 2019 vs 5.2% career avg
How do offensives metrics compare between LAC and IND?
2019 Pass Rate:
LAC: 63% (631 att)
IND: 54% (544 att)
2019 O-line pass protection rankings:
LAC: 9th
IND: 7th
Pass success rate:
LAC: 49% (5th)
IND: 42% (25th)
Run success rate:
LAC: 48% (17th)
IND: 53% (5th)
2019 Pass Rate:
LAC: 63% (631 att)
IND: 54% (544 att)
2019 O-line pass protection rankings:
LAC: 9th
IND: 7th
Pass success rate:
LAC: 49% (5th)
IND: 42% (25th)
Run success rate:
LAC: 48% (17th)
IND: 53% (5th)
So it seems Rivers played comparable to his career stats (INT% up and TD% down)
He also comes from a top 5 passing volume & success O to a bottom one, but one that had a top 5 rushing attack
Notably, w Luck in 2018:
IND PaAtt: 732 (1st)
Success rate: 52% (4th)
He also comes from a top 5 passing volume & success O to a bottom one, but one that had a top 5 rushing attack
Notably, w Luck in 2018:
IND PaAtt: 732 (1st)
Success rate: 52% (4th)
Below are illustrations of Rivers tendencies and completions by depth.
He consistently was above average, and targeted near LOS and intermediate depths (10-18 yds from LOS) more regularly than NFL average
He consistently was above average, and targeted near LOS and intermediate depths (10-18 yds from LOS) more regularly than NFL average
Who will benefit?
TY Hilton has opportunity to fill Keenan Allen's role
in 2018, they were 12 and 14, respectively, in air yards and had comparable YAC (identical air yards MS)
Allen had 19 more targets (29% tgt share v 22%)
Hilton's ADOT of 11.1 pairs well w/ Rivers attack
TY Hilton has opportunity to fill Keenan Allen's role
in 2018, they were 12 and 14, respectively, in air yards and had comparable YAC (identical air yards MS)
Allen had 19 more targets (29% tgt share v 22%)
Hilton's ADOT of 11.1 pairs well w/ Rivers attack
Positional tgt share has been steady on the #Colts
Based on career share and team tendency, Hilton can be in the 120-140 range easily
Other receivers will share remainder w/ lil certainty of who commands consistency
Ebron's departure paves intriguing path for Doyle
Based on career share and team tendency, Hilton can be in the 120-140 range easily
Other receivers will share remainder w/ lil certainty of who commands consistency
Ebron's departure paves intriguing path for Doyle
Fantasy implications:
Hilton is a value at WR25 in redraft. This is his floor w/ projected tgt share and 7 spots behind Allen, who has less QB certainty
Even at age 30, Hilton is a dynasty buy at WR44 for contenders. A 2nd is reasonable price, but wait until season w COVID
Hilton is a value at WR25 in redraft. This is his floor w/ projected tgt share and 7 spots behind Allen, who has less QB certainty
Even at age 30, Hilton is a dynasty buy at WR44 for contenders. A 2nd is reasonable price, but wait until season w COVID
Fantasy implications:
Both Pittman and Campbell are fades for the reasons outlined in this thread https://twitter.com/FF_TomB/status/1265694706983288832?s=20
Both Pittman and Campbell are fades for the reasons outlined in this thread https://twitter.com/FF_TomB/status/1265694706983288832?s=20
Conclusion:
Rivers has performed similar to career in 2019. Strong target for cheap SF QB
Hilton has chance to be featured in this offense and return huge value
Doyle is worthwhile speculative add
Fade Campbell and Pittman in both redraft and dynasty
Rivers has performed similar to career in 2019. Strong target for cheap SF QBHilton has chance to be featured in this offense and return huge value Doyle is worthwhile speculative addFade Campbell and Pittman in both redraft and dynasty
