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When New York City’s Covid case count peaked in late March, there were 5,000 new cases a day, and more than 60% of tests were coming back positive.
In Arizona, new cases are currently averaging about 3,000 a day and about 20% of tests are positive https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Things may keep getting worse in Arizona, and its Covid outbreak may eventually surpass New York City’s.
But it’s a long, long way from getting there, and @foxjust is guessing that it won’t https://trib.al/pAsNaut
But it’s a long, long way from getting there, and @foxjust is guessing that it won’t https://trib.al/pAsNaut
The specific conditions that enabled the awful explosion of the disease in New York City are not being replicated in:
Arizona
Texas
Florida
Southern California
https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Arizona Texas Florida Southern California https://trib.al/pAsNaut
New York City had no understanding of what was going on until it was way too late. A mix of estimates show:
Early March: 10,000+ infections
Mid March: 800,000 infections
Mid-April: 1.7 million infections
That’s 20% of the city’s population https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Early March: 10,000+ infections Mid March: 800,000 infections Mid-April: 1.7 million infectionsThat’s 20% of the city’s population https://trib.al/pAsNaut
In Arizona, which has just a million fewer people than NYC, 15,000+ people are being tested daily. NYC didn’t reach that level until May.
The positive rate went from 9% to 20% over the past month, a sign that testing isn’t keeping up with the outbreak https://trib.al/pAsNaut
The positive rate went from 9% to 20% over the past month, a sign that testing isn’t keeping up with the outbreak https://trib.al/pAsNaut
But Covid-19 is not raging out of control as it was in New York in March, at least not yet.
Data scientist Youyang Gu estimates that 330,028 Arizonans had contracted the disease as of July 1, about four times the confirmed-case number https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Data scientist Youyang Gu estimates that 330,028 Arizonans had contracted the disease as of July 1, about four times the confirmed-case number https://trib.al/pAsNaut
The Trump administration’s repeated claims that the recent upturn in confirmed cases is due entirely to increased testing are wrong.
But the big increase in testing does imply that this upturn probably isn’t as big as that of March and April https://trib.al/pAsNaut
But the big increase in testing does imply that this upturn probably isn’t as big as that of March and April https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Here’s an attempt to adjust the numbers to better reflect reality.
@foxjust used a simple rule of thumb, multiplying the number of new cases reported each day by the rolling seven-day positive-test percentage times 100 https://trib.al/pAsNaut
@foxjust used a simple rule of thumb, multiplying the number of new cases reported each day by the rolling seven-day positive-test percentage times 100 https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Higher positive test rates equate to more missed cases.On a national level, this formula shows 29.6 million Americans, or 9% of the population, infected so far, not far from the 10 times higher recently suggested by CDC’s Robert Redfield https://trib.al/pAsNaut
In any case, the message that Covid cases were much more undercounted in March and April than they are now is likely correct.
Sun Belt outbreaks are thus of a lesser speed and scale — so far, at least — than the wave that hit New York in spring https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Sun Belt outbreaks are thus of a lesser speed and scale — so far, at least — than the wave that hit New York in spring https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Even if hotspots in Arizona, Texas, California, Florida and elsewhere are quelled in the coming weeks, it won’t be a victory:
Hospital ICUs will probably still hit capacity
Tens of thousands of Americans will die unnecessarily https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Hospital ICUs will probably still hit capacityTens of thousands of Americans will die unnecessarily https://trib.al/pAsNaut
NYC’s Covid explosion was the product of a spectacular governance failure in the wake of similar disasters in Wuhan and Northern Italy.
Today’s Sun Belt outbreaks are somewhat more maddening, given the advances in testing and knowledge about the disease https://trib.al/pAsNaut
Today’s Sun Belt outbreaks are somewhat more maddening, given the advances in testing and knowledge about the disease https://trib.al/pAsNaut
