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1. For the moment annexation is delayed, but most likely it is still coming in the next few weeks or months. Hopefully it doesn’t happen but if it does, the best response for US supporters of a two state solution is to advocate for American recognition of the State of Palestine.
2. Importantly, the US wouldn’t recognize final borders that have to be negotiated but would reiterate Palestine’s borders should be based on the 1967 lines with mutually agreed swaps between the parties. I.e. a viable state. Not Trump’s state in name only.
3. Recognizing Palestine would be a deeply powerful signal of US recognition of Palestinian rights and would give a real boost to supporters of two states in Palestine and hope at a moment when there is little.
4. It would provide legitimacy to continue to build Palestinian governing institutions at a time when the biggest immediate danger in the aftermath of annexation is the collapse of the PA because of the lack of any legitmacy or hope amongst its own population.
5. And it would give Palestinian leadership some political space to stop taking actions intended to pressure Israel by threatening to collapse the PA - a scenario that would be harmful to Israelis and Palestinians alike.
6. It is also the right response because the whole rationale for not recognizing Palestine is the same rationale for not determining final borders - it must be determined in negotiations by the parties
7. If Israel is walking away from that concept with unilateral annexation than the same principle should apply to unilateral recognition of Palestine. What is good for the goose is good for the gander
8. And recognizing Palestine would put the United States clearly on the record with its policy instead of paying lip service to two states while watching that vision slip away.
9. This option is better than all the focus on conditioning security assistance, which has much less resonance in Palestinian society & would give Palestinians much less of a boost than recognition.
10. Conditionality would also harm US-Israel security cooperation on other challenges in the Mideast. And conditionality has poor track record of working in other cases
11. Practically speaking it’s a pipe dream since it requires congressional action which is not happening. And even if it ever did, it would be so limited in scope as to not make a difference in Israeli calculus.
12. Recognition just requires action from the President - not Congress. And it is a real meaningful profound give to Palestinians instead of an effort to punish Israelis
13. It still has its flaws. And I acknowledge that with annexation two states may be dead. We are nowhere near it now, but I still haven’t seen serious viable credible alternatives that are better. Though I’m open to them I’d someone can convince me
14. But at a minimum US recognition of the state of Palestine as a policy option need to be a bigger part of the debate in the United States as supporters of two states weigh how to respond to annexation.
