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Alright *cracks knuckles* let’s do this Age of Sigmar case study:
Warhammer Fantasy Battle (WFB) was the second big gaming system created by Games Workshop, released in 1983. It used rank and file infantry inspired by historical miniature games, mixed with high fantasy.
Warhammer Fantasy Battle (WFB) was the second big gaming system created by Games Workshop, released in 1983. It used rank and file infantry inspired by historical miniature games, mixed with high fantasy.
While it had far more retail success than specialist systems like Gothic and Bloodbowl, it never came close to matching the record-setting sales of the GW poster child, Warhammer 40,000.
I could do another whole thread on the business philosophy of GW but, suffice to say, it’s significantly different to that of most gaming companies. GW focus on selling high volumes of high-quality miniature kits.
Like it or not, the GW philosophy on game design and development is that rules exist to facilitate the sale of these miniature kits. Their entire company is structured with this in mind.
So, WFB being not *as* successful as 40k might seem like a small issue to you and me. It still sold a lot. But considering the tremendous effort we know goes into creating and maintaining a big miniature game, this was a long standing problem for WFB.
Add to this the problem of critical mass. Running since 1983, by the late 2000s WFB had enjoyed a long life in the world of miniature games and was showing signs of age.
Into the 7th and then 8th editions of the core rules, it had large sprawling factions with a number of ageing kits that weren’t selling out. And a storyline that had long since stalled.
Just nipping back to the GW business model. Ideally, they want to create a finite number of a particular miniature kit, for that kit to sell out, for it to be replaced by a newer shinier kit that veterans and new players will want to buy (accompanied by new and powerful rules).
Because the WFB kits were not selling at the numbers required, large one-off costs like plastic moulds (which are normally repaid through high sales) start to become a burden. That’s not to mention the stock itself, which sat collecting dust in shops and warehouses.
This slows the whole production line. To give the older kits chance to sell off, new kits take longer to come out. And because the old kits aren’t being replaced, the audience becomes further disenfranchised.
This coincides with a long period of time when the WFB ‘main’ storylines weren’t advancing, instead relying on novels and side stories to maintain interest. This didn’t satisfy the GW audience, who prize a good story almost as highly as new kits.
Enter Warhammer End Times in 2014, the beginning of the answer. To kill off a massive game like WFB, GW needed a massive burst of sales to clear as much old stock as possible. What better way to do that than a (literally) world-ending storyline?
Carefully planned, the End Times included huge plot points for fan favourite characters from every faction which coincided with new and exciting rules. All bets were off. Huge characters being killed off, some as heroes, some as villains. Amazing stuff.
A global community event which captured the attention of fans new and old. Honestly, I take my hat off to GW for how well-orchestrated it was. To pull all that together in one fell swoop is the miniature game equivalent of Avengers End Game.
And then bang, the dirt is gone. A bittersweet storyline where the heroes almost succeed. The WFB universe comes to a cataclysmic end. Leaving us on a cliffhanger as all good storytellers do, we had the Age of Sigmar (AoS) teaser.
Now you’ve a highly invested fan base, both financially and emotionally. You’ve also had time to create a whole new game to feed their addiction. The gaming world is watching in a mixture of awe and horror at this insane (genius?) move by GW.
The release of AoS is by no means smooth. You’ve got a very loud minority of emotionally charged fans who are horrified at the loss of WFB. YouTube videos of people burning armies, social media erupts. GW knew this was inevitable.
But their plan was the long game. Release new and interesting high fantasy factions and, as a nod to WFB veterans, release digital rules to temporarily allow their audience to use old miniatures until they were replaced with new kits.
All GW had to do was weather the storm and trust that AoS would slowly pick up steam, which (of course) it did. GW have always been known for their high quality miniatures but they truly outdid themselves in this new era.
I haven’t played since WFB 7th Edition but even I’ve had my head turned by some of the staggeringly gorgeous kits being churned out by the GW machine. They relied on their philosophy and their innate strengths to see them though.
Present day, the anger died down within a year or so and you have a whole new generation of gamers joining the old veterans in enjoying AoS. All because GW didn’t waver or hesitate. Listening to fans is important, but sometimes you have to stand your ground.
Now, what we don’t know is how well AoS is performing against WFB. We won’t know for some time if the gambit worked. At the very least, the situation is now very different. The story is intentionally unfinished to allow room for growth.
If I had to guess, I’d say GW estimated AoS to be around WFB sales numbers and adjusted their manufacturing accordingly. Accepting from the start that it would never match Warhammer 40k. It’s a much leaner beast overall, built from the ground up.
In killing off WFB as they did, they also removed a huge swathe of older miniature kits in one go, leaving a lot of space for their new (and shinier) miniature kits.
It’s also worth mentioning that GW took the opportunity to rename all their factions to be trademark-able. A shrewd move, and one that makes sense from the miniature game market leader. When GW moves, everyone else must to adapt to survive.
Add all that to the newer, community-friendly GW of the last few years and it’s easy to see why they now have almost total dominance over the casual gaming market.
Whether you like the AoS game or enjoyed the End Times experience, you have to admire the boldness of the strategy and the strength to play the long game. GW never wavered, stuck to their guns, and it seems to be working.
Also, did I just become a miniature gaming historian? 
