A brief thread on the Colorado CD3 GOP primary. Most primary contests are more like the Romanoff-Hickenlooper one, in which institutional backing trumps campaign activity. Not so in CD3. (1/5)
#copolitics https://www.mischiefsoffaction.com/post/fundamentals-in-colorado

Tipton hadn't really done anything "wrong." He had a solid Republican voting record, wasn't associated with major scandals, had the president's endorsement, etc. He was a bit invisible and uninspiring, but so are a lot of incumbents. (2/5)

Contrast w/Dan Lipsinski (D-IL), a pro-life Democrat who had been targeted by pro-choicers for years and eventually got taken down in the primary. Tipton wasn't really a target by any major groups within his party. (3/5)

He lost to Lauren Boebert, who didn't have much money or party backing, and has some eccentric (Qanon-curious) stances. But she's very conservative, energetic, and media savvy. She made great use of talk radio to get her name out despite her funding disadvantage. (4/5)

There are lots of primaries in which a stodgy incumbent faces a savvy challenger, and the stodgy incumbent almost always win. But occasionally lightning will strike, and it can't strike if there's no challenger running. (5/5)