The economy was beginning to climb out of its deep coronavirus hole. Then, the cases began to surge again, and the rebound began to stall out.
My latest with @jimtankersley: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/business/economic-recovery-virus-surge.html

Key point here: This slowdown came BEFORE the new round of shutdowns in TX/CA/etc. It's not government restrictions that are driving this -- it's individual people and businesses responding to the threat of the virus.

Note that this slowdown likely won't show up in tomorrow's monthly jobs figures, which were collected in mid-June, before cases began to surge again. So tomorrow's numbers could look good, but that shouldn't ease concerns.

Another thing that's clear in the data: Government support (in the form of rebate checks, expanded UI, PPP) went a long way toward offsetting the immediate economic damage of the shutdowns (nowhere close to all the way, clearly). But now that assistance is running out.

In other words, we might well have seen a second wave of economic damage *even without* a second wave of the virus. And now we may get both at once.

(Yes, I know this isn't a true "second wave" of the virus. More like an extension of the first wave. But the point stands.)