Short thread on why Egyptian policymakers are closely following internal developments in #Ethiopia? Egyptians have no ill intentions but are concerned whether the @AbiyAhmedAli government has the capacity to sign a #GERD agreement & be able to honor it. Why do I say that? 1/

Previously #Ethiopia signed agreements as an independent & sovereign state with #Egypt re: the Nile River. But #Ethiopia ended up not honoring them. They claim low political legitimacy of Ethiopian gov’t that signed them, making them illegitimate. That does NOT make sense. 2/

All previous agreements & treaties remain binding & in force. Example of #Ethiopia’s worrisome precedent of signing agreements & not honoring them is the 1993 General Framework for Cooperation re: Nile River, signed by Ethiopia’s late-prime minister Meles Zenawi. 3/

In 1902 Emperor Menelik signed the Anglo-Ethiopian treaty, prohibiting construction of any waterworks across Blue Nile affecting natural flow of waters. Ethiopians say it is a colonial treaty, even though they were NOT colonized & signed it free of any compulsion or coercion. 4/

In 2015 #Ethiopia‘s PM Desalegn signed the Declaration of Principles with #Sudan & #Egypt, yet again the current Ethiopian government of @AbiyAhmedAli seems to completely ignore & violate one of its most important articles: the Principle Not to Cause Significant Harm. 5/

There are legitimate questions re: #Ethiopia’s domestic unrest. Will future government honor a #GERD agreement if @AbiyAhmedAli is ousted? Is current gov’t a credible partner that could deliver a deal midst mass-protests? How would a possible civil war affect #GERD agreement? 6/

For #Egypt the Nile River is the main source of water. Over 100 million Egyptians depend on the Nile River. It is a matter of life or death, to be or not to be. The #GERD is a major national security concern & all developments pertaining it are closely monitored by Egyptians. 7/

State-sponsored cyber attacks to silence my commentary about #GERD only increases my determination to share insights about this political & legal dispute. The #GERD threatens international peace & stability. I hope a peaceful & diplomatic solution is reached soon. 8/

#Ethiopia can’t unilaterally fill #GERD without agreement. Any agreement needs to be legally binding under international law with clear definitions establishing threshold of significant harm that must be prevented. It also needs to have binding dispute resolution mechanism. 9/

Unfortunately the #Ethiopia based @_AfricanUnion, has been politicized, making in my view the UN Security Council the appropriate Int’l body for playing a constructive & neutral role by holding #Ethiopia accountable to its international legal obligations. 10/

Even though Ethiopians have expressed hatred on social media (mostly state-sponsored Twitter bots) I will end this thread by expressing my best wishes to the Ethiopian people & my sincere condolences to the families who have lost loved ones midst the mass-protests & unrest. *END*