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I’ve been teasing a #webinar on how to rethink your corporate #innovation stratgey for the next 2-3 years (hashtag Covid-19 etc). I’m going to share some of the key ideas here.
#thread
#thread
1) In such high uncertainty context, we need to assess and probe. And if #pessimists are not *always* right, strategically speaking, trying to forecast what can go wrong is just easier. Think of it as swiping for mines before building a new road.
2) As a fair reminder, you need to keep a few things in mind about this crisis. It’s not the 2008 crisis all over again, with its financial dominos effect (it’s far worse — see 1).
2-bis) If you want to read more on the nature of the #crisis read this article: https://www.icopilots.com/strategy/covid-19-crisis-a-strategic-analysis-part-1-19571
3) The current crisis call for a different problem resolution mindset and this something I discuss very often with corporations. Most of leaders have been trained to ask for the correct answer to a problem. There is no such thing here (but there are many possible paths forward).
4) Probing the future of the market because no one knows where it’s going, require that you start with very clear (and opinionated) #predictions about it. It’s not about being right, it’s about mapping what need to be tested.
4-bis) To read more of my #predictions for the key drivers in the market from 2020 to 2023, again full article here: https://www.icopilots.com/innovation-radar/covid-19-crisis-pestel-predictions-part-2-19737
5) Many #innovation tools are very useful right now. Chunking. Pattern, bottleneck and retrograde analysis. Stepping-stone scenarios. Risk portfolio...
The key word is #optionality.
If you’re playing with business plans and roadmaps at the moment, this is worrying.
The key word is #optionality.
If you’re playing with business plans and roadmaps at the moment, this is worrying.
5-bis) More on optionality here: https://www.icopilots.com/innovation-strategy/why-innovation-is-not-about-being-smart-and-fast-16890
6) Let’s take one tool as an ex. on how your innovation mindset should be working now. In #retrograde_analysis, 1st we map the possible outcomes of a biz impacted by the crisis. It’s not fractal, but possible + or - scenarios will branch out from your current market position.
7) Then identify a few favorable end-game positions in the future of the market, among all the possibilities you’ve identified. (Note that we focus on 3 of them, each one surround by variations of the outcome).
8) For each outcome, determine the most obvious pathway to get from there in 2 years to now in 2020. This is a #critical_path scenario which you will want to test.
9) When you done that for each outcomes, some #key_junctures in time will appear (2022: Huawei leads 5G in EU › 2021: EU open up rules for foreign companies on sovereign tech › end of 2020: first PoCs in Ireland and Germany — maybe not the best ex. but you get it).
10) These #key_junctures will arrive within a year and these are the one you want test with a #portfolio of collaborations, startups, or direct PoC on your side. Co-designing solutions with key customers wouldn’t harm too.
11) Also, remember that you should hedge your predictions with scenarios that are contrarian to your goal...
The ROI of is NOT new business, but #scouting ahead of the curve and getting an #head_start because you’re not waiting for Gartner to explain what to do after the battle.
The ROI of is NOT new business, but #scouting ahead of the curve and getting an #head_start because you’re not waiting for Gartner to explain what to do after the battle.
12) Predictions by themselves are useless. Make precise and engaged predictions to porve them wrong before you sunk huge costs in a linear, rigid roadmap.
13) [ Mandatory Mike Tyson quote on planning things ahead ]
![13) [ Mandatory Mike Tyson quote on planning things ahead ]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eb1pHwbX0AAWGBI.jpg "13) [ Mandatory Mike Tyson quote on planning things ahead ]")
14) Key idea is stil the same: The market these past 10 years have been relying on specific mechanisms. All of them have been thrown out the window since March, 13 (your mileage may vary on the date). ADAPT your perspective on #how_to_innovate. It’s not tougher. It’s #different.
15) Don’t predict. Build optionality. And yes, among other things working with a scouting portfolio is extremely efficient because our usual business acumen is worth sh*t right now.
#end
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