NEW THREAD 🚨 The Psychology Behind Going With Your Gut Feeling, applied to #FPL #FPLCommunity.

📌 Does trusting your gut lead to better decision-making?
📌 How will going with your gut impact FPL enjoyment?

Please RT and share this thread, and follow @FPL__Raptor for more!
INTRODUCTION: How many times has someone in FPL told you to “Go with your gut” or “trust your instincts”? Or, how many times have you thought to yourself, “I should have just trusted my gut”. Today I will briefly explore if there is any evidence to suggest that going with your...
...gut feeling will improve your decision-making. Secondly, I will explore whether going with your gut will improve the attitude you take when making decisions, and facing the consequences of those decisions.
1) Since the dawn of man, emotions have been the primary tool for decision-making, as they tell you a lot about the decision to be made. Often, these emotions can combine to create a ‘gut feeling’.
2) A gut feeling is often referred to as a ‘deep knowing’, ‘intuition’ or a ‘hunch’. The best definition for a gut feeling is “an immediate reaction, feeling or preference, without conscious reasoning or analysis”.
3) Whilst some of the best FPL managers this year (e.g. @FPLFanatix @lateriser12 @MagnusCarlsen) will argue that making many decisions without logical analysis is NOT advisable, there does appear to be a place for following your instincts, and here is research to support this.
4) Research suggests that often we have knowledge outside of consciousness and in the realm of intuition (Sadler-Smith, 2004). In other words, ‘gut feeling’ could indeed be the physical result of clever subconscious connections and patterns made by the brain. To explain further..
... there are films (e.g. Limitless) which suggest humans access 20% of their brain, with the other 80% unengaged. Whilst this is a myth, it is true that our brains can create connections and patterns which are not always consciously produced, instead portrayed as a gut feeling!
5) Some say that these connections can be explained as a ‘synthesis of diverse experiences’. In other words, our brains connecting all of our past failures and successes and helping advise us when our new decision is in-line with our past experiences. This would be huge for FPL!
6) Further, Kutsch (2019) highlights that gut feeling can help us recognise promising opportunities for high reward, but only in unstable and unpredictable environments such as FPL and Football. In these unstable environments, trusting your gut feeling can lead to better...
..performance, and be a useful tool. Khatri and Ong (2000) explain this by supporting the prior point, suggesting that in fast-paced, unstable environments (e.g. FPL), we make subconscious mental connections, that are not always consciously processed. Crossan et al. (1999)...
...call this “automated expertise” or “unconscious recollection”. Therefore, due to the unpredictability of FPL, relying on our ‘automated expertise’ (gut) MAY give us an edge, as it may be our brain trying to tell us a clever, expert connection it has made!
7) However, I would be doing you all a disservice if I only portrayed the potentially positive effect of trusting your gut feeling. Indeed, some researchers and statisticians are heavily against trusting your gut. Guthrie et al. (2007) show that in law (especially with Judges)...
...making quick decisions based on intuition can lead to “severe and systematic errors”. Whilst the consequence in FPL is not that of an incorrect jail sentence, an incorrect captaincy choice purely based on intuition can be hugely detrimental!
8) Further, trusting your gut too much can engage the “Semmelweis Reflex”. Here, we reject & ignore new information as it does not fit with our already established preference - our gut feeling. The rejection of new information limits our potential to succeed and learn...
...FPL scenario: our gut tells us to Captain Lewis Dunk, but the statistics suggest that Brighton are leaking goals and he’s had no touches in the opposition box in the last 5. Here, we must find a balance between trusting our gut and using other resources...
...(see http://whogottheassit.com  @WGTA_FPL and the section titled ‘Psychology Corner’ for a great article on the ‘Semmelweis Relfex’).
9) Lastly & MOST importantly in this thread, how does trusting your gut influence your enjoyment of FPL? Firstly, Stevenson et al. (2016) found a direct positive correlation between making decisions based on intuition & overall happiness - you are more accepting of your choices!
10) Further, trusting your gut may lead to lower resentment of your decision when it goes wrong. FPL Scenario: if you TC Nick Pope against SHU, it is less likely to cause anger and frustration when it fails if the decision came from your gut, as opposed to external advice...
...similarly, you are less likely to resent others, because there is nothing worse than changing your gut feeling because of external pressure, and thinking: “Why did I not just trust my gut?”
11) Lastly on enjoyment, getting a decision correct after trusting your gut is one of the most incredible feelings. This is because you feel in control of your decisions and emotions, which could increase your feelings of self-worth and self-esteem. In fact...
...Whitfield & Hill (2007) suggest that trusting and valuing your gut will improve feelings of implicit and explicit self-esteem, regardless of whether you gut is correct. Therefore, even if it does not improve your decisions, trusting your gut may improve feelings of happiness!
CONCLUSION: FPL is ultimately about enjoyment. Neither statistics, form, nor gut feeling can predict with 100% accuracy which FPL players will return. It is about using all resources available to you, of which, your gut feeling can be a very useful one!
Our gut feeling is probably most effectively utilised when the statistics and form all suggest that our decision is a 50/50 and could go either way. Here, utilising your gut feeling ‘could’ result in better decision-making, and less emotional turmoil! #FPL #FPLCommunity
Calling on some of the biggest & most engaging FPL accounts to RT & share, thank you 🙏🏼 @FPLFanatix @FPLFamily @FPLGOAT7 @FPLnumbers @Fpl_Elite @FPLSavage @FPL_ElStatto @FplAdama @FPL_SLEDGE @FplStrategy @FPL_Rockstar @roneildinho @theFPLdabbler @FPL_physio @DhillonAjit @FPL_Swe
You can follow @FPL__Raptor.
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