Next up: @MLiebreich ! BNEF founder, energy luminary, live from Switzerland. Member of IEA global commission for urgent action on energy efficiency.

ML: panel was right - you need short term recovery and long term plan. Commission work got wrapped up in COP26, then COVID supercharged the whole thing as efficiency became part of stimulus. I've argued it should be the heart of pandemic recovery.

Luke: Where are we at globally on efficiency and emissions?
ML: Last year I said world peak emissions was 'closer than you think'. BAU path is still bad, but well below what we used to expect.
Global GDP grew 23% in past decade and emissions only 3%.

ML: drivers of global GDP/CO2 decoupling have been:
- coal peak (somewhat because of coal to gas switch)
- renewables growth (non hydro RE went from 3% to 11% of global power in a decade! curve is striking!)
- energy productivity (more buck per BTU) and efficiency

ML: So at the end of last year I thought the emissions curve was better than many expected - and bendable further to get where we need to go.

Luke: Do you think the IEA is right that we can make 2019 the year of world peak emissions?
ML: Yes, it is realistic to hope this was the peak (for CO2 from energy specifically - methane, land use are distinct). But we need active hope, not passive: feasible so make it happen!

ML: efficiency commission is now spreading through IEA, other global bodies. Our sustainable recovery report plots paths:
1. Like GFC - big emissions drop then fossil driven recovery growth
2. Better - take big investment/reform steps and economy recovers but emissions never do

ML: We're going to have permanent loss of activity in some sectors from COVID. Not to be celebrated. But if we can further adjust the curve downwards by investing in efficiency, we can make permanent difference while driving growth elsewhere in economy.

ML: Many countries having a torrid time handling the pandemic. But we are where we are - the situation does enable and accelerate big change, and every sector is thinking about what to do next. Practices are all up for reconstruction/renewal.

ML: We have to take the opportunity to shape the response and the post-pandemic world - when the situation stabilises, it needs to crystallise into the best form we can manage.
Efficiency agenda is now resonating globally in a way it just wasn't last year.
But time is limited

ML: People will go back to normal rapidly once the fear of the pandemic abates, and past consumption patterns will return in many respects if nothing fundamental has changed.

ML: Efficiency is Swiss Army Knife for recovery:
The tradies etc who get work as a result will go out and spend in communities.
More efficient buildings reduce economy input costs with long term multiplier effect.
Good for climate - and hence for *us*, reducing impacts on people

ML: Supply side grabs most attention, sucking air from the efficiency debate. But all the evidence shows you can't solve climate change solely on supply side.
1.5C may not be doable anymore, but 2C requires 25% CO2 reduction in 10 years while continuing GDP growth.

ML: Need sustained 4-5%pa reduction in CO2 intensity of GDP. I love all the supply side techs, VRE, batteries, nuclear, more. But supply side can't get it done alone. It's not virtually impossible: it's IMPOSSIBLE. Supply chains and politics make it so. Need demand side too.

Luke: OK - so how do we do it?
ML: Is that the time? I've got to go.
JOKING
The Commission report builds on a lot of good work - it takes a decade to become an overnight success. We synthesised lots of existing work.

ML:
The One Ring To Rule Them All recommendation from the Commission is #10: raise global energy efficiency ambition. PMs, Presidents, Cabinets, CEOs need to be build efficiency into top-level agenda.

ML: Climate often sits in environment ministries and energy within energy. But you can't do efficiency without working across ministries - Ag! Housing! Schools! Industry! Cross-functional work requires banging Ministerial heads together.

Luke: So it takes genuine leadership from government. Brian Motherway of IEA told EEC conference: government is crucial - don't need to regulate to death, do need to establish frameworks that help rest of us get on with it.

ML: my work is translating between different audiences - business, investors, governments. All have roles and need to show leadership.
But yes, governments make markets and police the rules. Intimately involved in creating power market rules.

ML: eg it's way cheaper to store hot water than electricity. But without a policy framework for energy markets that allows this value to be unlocked, it won't happen.

OTOH in some areas business can just get it done and governments scramble to catch up (Tesla)

ML: Governments need to think a few years ahead. Wind and solar clearly growing huge. So we need a market for flexibility - light touch intervention though - if the state dominates every part of the equation, costs will be much higher. Govt mustn't be indolent *or* hyperactive.

ML: Need a culture in which politicians are able to act, not just react. Voters need to be taken on a journey, and tribal culture-hacking is needed. Over time, political bravery is to lead and nudge constituents, not just follow where they are today.

ML: We're on a 20-30 year journey on climate. We can't just rely on big dramatic shows of leadership - need many smaller steps and nudges.

Luke: In the current crisis the role of government seems more central than ever.

ML: Yes, many people are looking to governments to act *and spend money*. Anti-Keynesians all become Keynesians in a crisis, but Keynesians too often want money to keep flowing in good times

Luke: where is efficiency conversation going globally?
ML: a lot of this has to be done at very local levels - not big remote projects, but upgrading hard assets everywhere.

ML: EU is leading the Renovations Agenda. They were already on the case with the EU Green Deal pre-COVID, in prep for a new 7 year budget cycle. Lots of work was being done to get EU27 agreement.

ML: EU stimulus push is now accelerating this. e750b? e1t? We'll see. but retrofits/renovations element is growing hugely - e91b into housing efficiency renos from EU, more
from national governments. More again for manufacturing upgrades. Also hydrogen (slower delivery probably)

ML: UK: Conservatives had GBP9b for home upgrades in election manifesto - are lagging a bit in their update for pandemic.
In US, great progress at state level but modest resources. Federal: depends on election - but a new Admin would take a couple of years to implement something

ML: we're seeing more technology-led language in US. A possible Biden Admin would have a year of pause for development, then hyperactivity.

ML: US Green New Deal is not yet an implementation-ready package, but a statement of direction. It'll take some time to get there even if elections allow.
EU package is different - this is well advanced in the sausage machine.

Luke: how do you turn momentum around efficiency into action?
ML: I don't know the details of Australian policymaking! But:
Start with activists and progressive businesspeople ( @mcannonbrookes namechecked);
Investors are focussed by the outperformance of greener biz;

ML: the missing piece in many countries is the move from passive hope to active. Who will draft proposal? How much money is needed for which bits? Who needs to be in the room? Who will construct the offer?
We don't need to wait for govts to develop - we can hand them the work.

ML: do the work and make it conventional wisdom that it is inevitable it will be adopted.

Luke: there's incredible enthusiasm in Australia and some great plans. They need to coalesce into a concise offer to govts.

ML: there is a moment in which to create that sense of inevitability. The only losers are those on the supply side who would like us to stay wasteful; but their voices are drowned out for the moment.

ML: success breeds success. Combo of digitisation and finance changes the efficiency world: tonnes of $ will chase good returns; historically difficult to separate efficiency from building/factory; but digital helps financialise efficiency. Superfunds, banks should be eager.

ML: Efficient homes with proper ventilation are healthier and happier. Wasting energy has to become seen as the new smoking: and if so, once habit is kicked better practices are locked in.

ML: Cultural change can be helped by govt: today efficiency investment is seen as cost not investment. Need to reframe efficiency as an asset. Legislation can help - ie how efficiency conveyedwhen homes bought/sold.
Developers need confidence that ppl pay more for efficient homes

Luke, to close:
Tomorrow @EECouncil , @ACOSS , @The_AiGroup , @PropertyCouncil will release a statement capturing the outcomes of this summit. EEC site for the summit will have links to key reports and plans referenced.
And more to come - watch this space.

Luke:
Together we can make a big difference on energy, economy, emissions, health. Role for all of us in making it happen - very much including Australia's governments.

Close! Time to cease tweeting for a bit (thank goodness I was doing this on keyboard not phone)