Full release of the @DeptDefence ‘2020 Defence Strategic Update’ and ‘2020 Force Structure Plan’. Three new strategic objectives: SHAPE Australia’s strategic environment, DETER actions against AS interests, RESPOND with credible mil force as required https://www.defence.gov.au/StrategicUpdate-2020/

THREAD: quick review of the @DeptDefence 2020 Force Structure Review, focussing on what is new and interesting. Lots of important decisions, especially within a 10 year timeline.

The Review now creates a Capability Program Architecture of 35 projects each with designated capability managers. This is a key requirement in managing such significant change across the Force in a very short time.

Very interesting to see where the dollars fall, with actually a far more even split between the domains than one might instinctively expect.

A major leap in intended capability investment from 2016 White Paper, up to $270 billion fm $195 billion. Key that this is de-linked from GDP forecasts (not about 2%). I don’t have the economic nouse to understand how feasible this is: I’ll leave that to @ASPI_org @Marcus_ASPI.

In the maritime, expected investment in advanced guided weapons, long-range anti-ship and land strike. The ‘access’ competition is a key feature of regional competition.

Also an increased focus on ‘undersea warfare’, where much of the regional arms race seems likely to be taking place. The submarine program is but one facet of an undersea warfare system that seeks to own our subsurface approaches.

Important addition for @Australian_Navy of six Cape class patrol boats to bridge the gap between the Armidale and the Arafura classes. A very sensible investment to manage a key capability in an archipelagic region.

For amphibious ops, MAJOR decision to acquire two sealift + replen vessels to replace CHOULES. This gives the critical fourth amphib to generate a reliable ATG that can routinely deploy. Will need a capable heavy veh deck, but def right decision over LHDs @kbgilfillan @og10952557

Additional investment in an ice-rated hull to operate in the Southern Ocean, ensuring an @Australian_Navy presence in an increasingly contested area.

For @AusAirForce, additions on top of the F35 program of advanced loitering munitions for persistent presence and strike.

And for protection, a surge into deployable defensive systems to protect postured forces. A quiet but firm statement in addition to work with the US on countering ballistic missile threats.

The decision to invest much more in new areas has to come at some cost, but much of the money is new. There is a notable decision not to fund additional KC-30 tankers, often considered a key pinch point of sustainable operations.

A major area of new planned investment is in the space domain, with a key focus on ‘space control’ and warfighting outcomes. The militarisation of space continues, and there is little choice but to rise to the challenge.

For @AustralianArmy, much of the land combat program is already funded, but there is a notable commitment to replace the M1A1 when it reaches end of life, as part of a combined arms capability @RenataHickson @MatthewWatt803 @2CAVREGT @SOARMDAusArmy

It’s certainly a pretty remarkable time to be a Gunner @AustralianArmy: massive commitments to regiments of self-propelled guns, lightweight artillery and longe range rockets @WG_Cooper @20RegtRAA

And remarkable new, much needed, investments in watercraft for @AustralianArmy. We live in an archipelaegic region, and need to be able to manoeuvre small and often. Whole new career streams here, deeply linked into @Australian_Navy amphib and truly joint @Jim1Life @og10952557

Another doozy for @AustralianArmy, with up to a BDE (!) of un-crews systems. Potential here for true HUM-T, offsetting the ADF’s intrinsic mass issues in a rapidly proliferating region. Lots of good ethical questions to answer here @keirinjoyce @Cphw69 @DPBEthics

Continued commitment to rotary wing capabilities, which (like armour) were already mostly funded. New commitment to a long range rormtart aircraft though ... which speaks to V-22 or one of the replacement systems. Hate the transition on those things! @criticalaviator @kbgilfillan

All of this underpinned by continued investment in ‘on the person’ kit, already some of the best in the world. I am blown away every time I put it on how good the personal PPE is! @dwmccammon

Lots of new joint capabilities underpinning the domains as well, including critical investment in GEOINT to ensure we can act well and right. Fast and accurate intelligence and decision making remains as much the ADF’s edge as its equipment.

Actually comparatively little mention of the Reserves, with the assumption that they underpin the remainder of the capability. The Total Workforce System gets far more of a mention later on, as the barriers between full and part time are deliberately blurred @malwells92

Very important investments in joint logistics capabilities, including critical fuel reserves and deployable fuel capabilities @davidblogistics @logisticsinwar

Expected commitment that people are key to Defence capability, with a drive to reshape + reskill rather than immediately grow. The platform for growth is being set though ... a hard one, as wages remain one of the most significant costs, and the ADF remuneration package is superb

Modest but important initial increased in numbers, especially in the @Australian_Navy. But the more important part is perhaps the comments on additional planned growth post 2024 ...

This is especially the case for @AustralianArmy, where I’d suggest growth is likely to crew all the incoming capabilities. The door is open from 2024 onwards ... recruiting and retention will be vital this next 10 years.

And FINALLY, in terms of bases, lots of renovations and improvements ... but also a very interesting commitment to a new watercraft base in Northen Australia. This watercraft effort will genuinely spawn a new brand @AustralianArmy, especially if they are as big as some suggest!

And that’s all she wrote. In all, remarkable investment, delinked to GDP growth. We often say that strategy is hard when the future is unclear. Well, the future now seems clearer ... and it looks dangerous. All at the ADF are about to become change managers, and the time is now.