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People are defending Trump’s COVID-19 response and arguing that we are just headed for herd immunity which is a good thing.
Let’s do some math:
We have currently 40,000 COVID-19 cases per day. The population of the United States is ~329 million.
Let’s do some math:
We have currently 40,000 COVID-19 cases per day. The population of the United States is ~329 million.
It would therefore take 8,205 days to get everyone exposed to COVID-19. That’s 22 years.
But, everybody infected is not herd immunity. Herd immunity is nominally about 70% of the population being exposed. That cuts it down to… 230,300,000 people which means it would take only 5,756 days… or ~16 years for herd immunity.
You wanna be doing this for 16 years?
You wanna be doing this for 16 years?
Now, lets say we accelerate it to 100,000 cases per day. That cuts it down to 2,303 days or, 6.3 years.
Or… or… hear me out. We could wear masks and practice social distancing until we can get a vaccine and the inherent infrastructure which will take months to a year or so.
Or… or… hear me out. We could wear masks and practice social distancing until we can get a vaccine and the inherent infrastructure which will take months to a year or so.
That is not even taking into account how many people will be permanently disabled because of COVID-19 related morbidity, and certainly not taking into account the number of people that would die as a result to opening everything back up.
We are already at 129,000 *DEATHS* from COVID-19 in the United States alone.
This did not have to happen. However, if we were to completely disregard all caution, we could, before this is over, be looking at 1-3 million deaths in the United States over the next year.
This did not have to happen. However, if we were to completely disregard all caution, we could, before this is over, be looking at 1-3 million deaths in the United States over the next year.
The *fastest*, safest, most prudent way forward to reopen the economy and recover our economy is to limit exposure.
The rest of the world realized this and are starting to lock Americans out of their economies. The EU will not grant Americans access now for instance.
The rest of the world realized this and are starting to lock Americans out of their economies. The EU will not grant Americans access now for instance.
And in the future? Biology is gonna do its thang, and create a new vector for infectious disease.
It was not too long ago when we realized this and created infrastructure to mitigate the harm and the damage to global economies.
Trump has been destroying this infrastructure.
It was not too long ago when we realized this and created infrastructure to mitigate the harm and the damage to global economies.
Trump has been destroying this infrastructure.
Think about the total damage to the global economy from this…
Just the first two months of COVID-19 in the US is estimated to have cost $2.14 trillion by some projections.
Imagine what a few $million invested in coronavirus / biomedical research could have saved us...
Just the first two months of COVID-19 in the US is estimated to have cost $2.14 trillion by some projections.
Imagine what a few $million invested in coronavirus / biomedical research could have saved us...
This is why we have the NIH, and the CDC, and the NSF, etc…
This is why we invest in science and research.
Those investments not only drive our economy, but they protect our economy and the lives of literally billions of people on planet Earth.
This is why we invest in science and research.
Those investments not only drive our economy, but they protect our economy and the lives of literally billions of people on planet Earth.
