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With the results of the Polish presidential election basically counted, some first thoughts before the run-off in two weeks. Much will depend on voter flows and how both candidates will try to impact them. One is for sure: it will be pretty darn close. #Thread #wybory2020 1/16
The incumbent A. Duda came in first. With support from state media-turned-PiS-mouthpiece he has run a campaign built around anti-LGBTQ rhetoric, different from his moderate tactics of 2015, but one already tried and tested by PiS 15 years ago. 2/16 https://www.routledge.com/Radical-Right-Parties-in-Central-and-Eastern-Europe-Mainstream-Party-Competition/Pytlas/p/book/9781138889668
R. Trzaskowski pulled the lib.-conservative KO out of electoral basement in a very short time since May election reset. Former KO candidate, M. Kidawa-Błońska, has run a lackluster campaign, but also fell victim to a classical political “glass cliff” 3/16 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glass_cliff
Question before run-off is how votes for other candidates will distribute and which strategies will be used to impact these flows. Some pundits were quick to crown K. Bosak of the far-right Konfederacja as 'the Kingmaker’, yet the picture seems more complex. 4/16
Duda has reached an electoral ceiling and has already been fishing for a while in the far-right pond. There is illiberal ideological affinity between PiS and Konfederacja in cultural terms, yet the current tactics of Konfederacja makes voter flows less obvious. 5/16
Substantively, Konfed. remains a mix of extreme right, anti-Semitism and extreme-libertarianism embodied by the explicitly anti-democratic, social darwinist and mysoginist J. Korwin-Mikke. Tactically, since 2019 it pursues a normalization strategy similar to Hungarian Jobbik 6/16
Similarly to Jobbik, in 2019 Konf. mixed anti-system stances with a ‘cuteness campaign’. It tried to build a ‘reputational shield’ by focusing on economy and anti-corruption. While remaining REX, it tried to normalize as valence-oriented ‘anti-establishment reform’ party 7/16
Copying Jobbik’s strategy against Fidesz, Kon. thus tried to depict itself as an anti-systemic, more refined and 'rational' version of PiS. It simultaneously is careful to keep a clear distance from PiS, avoiding to end up as a ‘starter’ on PiS plate. 8/16 https://twitter.com/bartekpytlas/status/1096033102642724864
Konfederacja bid was less about victory than about further normalizing its image in Polish politics. It seems they were partly successful. KO candidate congratulated Bosak as any other contender and noted that “with regard to economic freedom we have largely the same views”. 9/16
What it means for the run-off is that despite strategic affinity, Duda cannot automatically count on far-right vote. According to yesterday’s flash poll, Konfed voters are divided and roughly a third declares to abstain in the run-off. 10/16 https://oko.press/ii-tura-tuz-po-i-turze-blyskawiczny-sondaz-kantara/
While some tend to focus on (only 2.3 percent total) undeclared Konfederacja voters, the ‘far-right as ‘the Kingmaker’ narrative is not the main story here. Many far-right voters might in fact remain abstainers no matter what, similarly to the Kukiz electorate back in 2015 11/16
Q is if Trzaskowski holds center-left voters and mobilizes Hołownia's electorate. Hołownia as a partisan outsider has run on an ‘anti-political centrist’ platform and with his comparably moderate conservative stance has more potential to serve as the main kingmaker 12/16
Duda will probably continue to further seek voters on the far-right. But he might also try to balance out his already built up radical reservoir and return to his 2015 tactics of non-ideological moderation. If anything, PiS has experience in walking this tactical tightrope 13/16
Hołownia’s voter flow to Trzaskowski seems much more straightforward, but could require a more ‘Macron-like’ campaign. Presenting himself only as anti-PiS might not be enough and could require further simulating an anti-political maverick image–with all potential and risks. 14/16
Pandering to the far-right based on its secondary economic position is very likely to backfire on KO. Much more is to be lost on the already acquired center-left. Not to mention more middle and long-term consequences of further strengthening far-right ‘reputational shield’. 15/16
These are of course first thoughts on what is surely going to be a dynamic run-off campaign and a pretty darn close call in the #End. 16/16 https://twitter.com/BDStanley/status/1277333819717226498
