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This report is getting a lot of attention, particularly the implication that Labour should move to the right on cultural issues to win back voters. But, as I argue in my new book (book promotion klaxon), this is extremely misleading. https://global.oup.com/academic/product/anti-system-politics-9780190699765?cc=it&lang=en& https://twitter.com/UKandEU/status/1277377514541907968
I argue that the rise of the authoritarian right is actually the result of political parties not representing voters on *economic* issues (yes, the issues where voters are closer to Labour). The same reason anti-system left movements are also surging at the moment.
As I argue in this podcast with @mkblyth the simultaneous rise of anti-system politics on both left and right can't easily be explained by cultural issues, because the average voter has been moving *to the left* on this dimension, everywhere
Instead the disconnect between voters and governments on economic policy, and the very real consequences of neoliberal policies for most citizens' economic security, is a more likely explanation. It fits the over time and cross-national pattern of anti-system voting far better
Centre-left parties may be closer to the average voter on economics - supporting more redistribution and welfare - but in government, from the US, to Germany, to France, to the UK, these same parties have retrenched the welfare state and removed employment protections
And as this great paper shows, this has come at a huge electoral cost. Centre-left parties who promote welfare cuts suffer long-term losses in voter support https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13501763.2020.1773904?journalCode=rjpp20
For Britain, @chloetouzet has shown that Labour's 'tough on welfare' rhetoric under Tony Blair significantly undermined support for redistribution, undercutting the party's own voter base https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:68873821-edf8-4341-9278-f88f5b743c41
One of the reasons the cultural debate matters is that the people representing Labour have become much less 'working class' over time, accentuating an apparent values divide, as @DrTomD_OG shows here https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/10052651/1/careerists%20coal%20miners_final.pdf
But that is a reflection of the huge economic changes that have destabilized the centre-left parties just about everywhere, with similar results. The centre has been hollowed out, and voters are diverging to the left or to the right, usually on the basis of age and education
The way for the centre-left to win voters back is to address the very real economic threats facing them. Focusing on identity politics, whether of the left or the right, only serves to divide the coalition of forces that would all benefit from progressive economic policies.
Which is the reason the right, and its deep-pocketed donor base, want to talk about identity. The left needs to address racism and gender inequalities. There is no inconsistency - quite the opposite - between doing that and achieving a more equitable economic order for all.
As I said, all this is in a book just out! https://global.oup.com/academic/product/anti-system-politics-9780190699765?cc=it&lang=en& DM me for a promotional code ;)
